San Diego FC @ Austin FC
SDFAwaySan Diego FC39%
@AFHomeAustin FC35%
Model PickSan Diego FC 39%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 4 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We project a San Diego FC victory in this matchup, though the edge against the market remains uncalculated. The primary driver is San Diego FC's superiority in '시즌 폼(전적) / Season Form (record)' (deltaPct -2.9) and '공격력(득점/경기) / Attack (goals/game)' (deltaPct -2.9), which helps offset Austin FC's '홈 어드밴티지 / Home Advantage' (deltaPct 3.7). The main swing risk lies in the marginal difference shown in '유효슛 비율 / Shots on Target %' (deltaPct -0.2), and bettors should remain cautious as our model does not beat the market over the long term.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts San Diego FC vs Austin FC by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 35% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-2.9
Attack (goals/game)-2.9
Shots on Target %-0.2
Baseline 50% → final home win47.8%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 35%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Austin FC at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Austin FC 7-9-10 vs Away San Diego FC 8-7-11 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home DWDDW vs Away DLLLW (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.23 vs Away 1.69 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.69 vs Away 1.69 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 37.23% vs Away 38.36% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 13.1% vs Away 16.1% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 49.37% vs Away 59.77% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 84.68% vs Away 88.84% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 68.62% vs Away 65.61% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Anders Dreyer's Red-Hot Form
San Diego FC's Anders Dreyer is in peak form, earning MLS Team of the Matchday honors after outdueling Lionel Messi in a thrilling 2-2 draw against Inter Miami.
Basis: LLM · news · Anders Dreyer and CJ Dos Santos named to MLS Team
Qualitative · Dos Santos Anchoring the Backline
San Diego FC goalkeeper CJ Dos Santos was named to the MLS Team of the Matchday following a stellar performance that shores up the team's defensive confidence.
Basis: LLM · news · Anders Dreyer and CJ Dos Santos named to MLS Team
Qualitative · Austin FC Fatigue After Texas Derby
Austin FC enters the match after a physically demanding Texas Derby draw against FC Dallas, potentially facing fatigue issues.
Basis: LLM · news · Austin FC Plays to Draw with FC Dallas, Austin FC,
Qualitative · International Window Call-up Disruptions
The September and October international window call-ups could disrupt squad depth and lineup consistency for both clubs.
Basis: LLM · news · Every MLS call-up: September & October 2026 intern
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Match Preview Presented by Lexus: Austin FC vs. San Diego FC | September 26, 2026
- Anders Dreyer and CJ Dos Santos named to MLS Team of the Matchday
- Austin FC vs San Diego FC: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Lineups
- Austin FC Plays to Draw with FC Dallas
- Line up Austin FC vs San Diego FC, MLS - Liga USA 2026
- Dreyer outduels Messi as San Diego hands Miami 4th straight draw
- Every MLS call-up: September & October 2026 international window
- Match Recap: San Diego FC Plays to 2-2 Road Draw in First Match Against Inter Miami CF
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
San Diego FC vs Austin FC — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives San Diego FC a 39% chance to win (Home 35% · Draw 26% · Away 39%). MLS · 2026-09-27 09:30 KST.
How was the 47.8% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 47.8%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.