Orlando City SC @ Philadelphia Union
OCSAwayOrlando City SC33%
@PUHomePhiladelphia Union41%
Model PickPhiladelphia Union 41%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We favor Philadelphia Union to win, driven by their edge in 'Home Advantage' and 'Defense (goals against/game)'. However, concerns regarding 'Season Form (record)' and 'Shots on Target %' present significant risks, and our model does not consistently outperform the market in the long run.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Orlando City SC vs Philadelphia Union by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 41% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-2.7
Attack (goals/game)+1
Defense (goals against/game)+4.3
Shots on Target %-1.5
Baseline 50% → final home win54.8%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 41%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Philadelphia Union at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Philadelphia Union 10-6-10 vs Away Orlando City SC 10-4-12 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home WWWWW vs Away LLWWW (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.92 vs Away 1.77 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.62 vs Away 2.31 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 31.22% vs Away 41.64% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 13.2% vs Away 16.2% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 47.76% vs Away 48.95% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 76.73% vs Away 85% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 63.11% vs Away 65.44% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Lions' Unbeaten Streak Snapped
Orlando City enters this match following a deflating 4-2 loss to New England, which snapped their recent unbeaten run.
Basis: LLM · news · New England rallies, tops Orlando City 4-2 to end
Qualitative · Sullivan's Form Surge
Philadelphia's Cavan Sullivan is in peak form, recently earning a spot on the MLS Team of the Matchday.
Basis: LLM · news · Cavan Sullivan Named to MLS Team of the Matchday
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Match report: Orlando City SC falls 4-2 at New England Revolution
- Cavan Sullivan Named to MLS Team of the Matchday for Matchday 27
- Philadelphia v Orlando City Odds
- Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Lineups
- New England rallies, tops Orlando City 4-2 to end Lions’ unbeaten run
- The Road Ahead, driven by Audi: Orlando City SC at New England Revolution
- Fiesta Hispana Activations You Won't Want to Miss on Saturday!
- Red Bull New York Defender Matthew Dos Santos and Winger Dennis Nelich Called Up to U-19 USYNT Camp
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Orlando City SC vs Philadelphia Union — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Philadelphia Union a 41% chance to win (Home 41% · Draw 26% · Away 33%). MLS · 2026-09-27 08:30 KST.
How was the 54.8% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 54.8%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.