Chicago Fire FC @ Charlotte FC
CFFAwayChicago Fire FC33%
@CFHomeCharlotte FC41%
Model PickCharlotte FC 41%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We favor Charlotte FC to win, driven by their Home Advantage and superior Shots on Target %. However, the negative Season Form remains a key swing risk, and our model does not consistently beat the market in the long run.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Chicago Fire FC vs Charlotte FC by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 41% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-0.5
Attack (goals/game)+0
Defense (goals against/game)+0.6
Shots on Target %+1
Baseline 50% → final home win54.9%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 41%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Charlotte FC at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Charlotte FC 12-7-7 vs Away Chicago Fire FC 11-6-8 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home WDWDW vs Away LLDDD (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.81 vs Away 1.8 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.42 vs Away 1.52 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 43.14% vs Away 36.6% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 16.9% vs Away 14.1% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 46% vs Away 51.32% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 86.79% vs Away 84.06% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 63.92% vs Away 66.22% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Lewandowski Called Up for International Duty
Chicago Fire forward Robert Lewandowski has been called up to the Poland National Team for the UEFA Nations League, leaving a massive void in the Fire's attacking line for the Charlotte clash.
Basis: LLM · news · Robert Lewandowski Called Up to Poland Men’s Natio
Qualitative · Poreba's Spark and Fire's Bounce-Back Motivation
Following a successful MLS debut with an assist, David Poreba expressed strong determination to help Chicago Fire get back to winning ways in their upcoming road match at Charlotte.
Basis: LLM · news · David Poreba 'grateful' after 'long road' to assis
Qualitative · Urgent Need to Rebound After Nashville Defeat
Chicago Fire enters the match seeking redemption after suffering a disappointing defeat against Nashville SC at GEODIS Park in their previous outing.
Basis: LLM · news · Match Recap | Chicago Fire FC Falls to Nashville S
9 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Match Recap | Chicago Fire FC Falls to Nashville SC at GEODIS Park
- David Poreba 'grateful' after 'long road' to assist in MLS debut, says Chicago Fire looking to get back to 'winning ways' at Charlotte
- Chicago Fire FC
- Chicago Fire FC Forward Robert Lewandowski Called Up to Poland Men’s National Team for UEFA Nations League
- Every MLS call-up: September & October 2026 international window
- Charlotte vs. Chicago (27 Sep, 2026) Live Score
- MLS Odds: Major League Soccer Betting Lines
- Major League Soccer (MLS) TV Schedule: Upcoming games, dates and kick-off times
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Chicago Fire FC vs Charlotte FC — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Charlotte FC a 41% chance to win (Home 41% · Draw 26% · Away 33%). MLS · 2026-09-27 08:30 KST.
How was the 54.9% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 54.9%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.