Real Salt Lake @ Seattle Sounders FC
RSLAwayReal Salt Lake38%
@SSFHomeSeattle Sounders FC36%
Model PickReal Salt Lake 38%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects Real Salt Lake with a 38% chance of winning, slightly higher than Seattle Sounders FC's 36%. Real Salt Lake holds an edge in 'Season Form (record)', while 'Home Advantage' favors Seattle Sounders FC. The market edge for this match is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Real Salt Lake vs Seattle Sounders FC by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 36% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-4.5
Attack (goals/game)-2
Defense (goals against/game)+1.9
Shots on Target %-0.3
Baseline 50% → final home win49%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 36%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Seattle Sounders FC at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Seattle Sounders FC 7-8-9 vs Away Real Salt Lake 8-5-12 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home DDDDD vs Away LLLDL (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.17 vs Away 1.48 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.38 vs Away 1.68 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 36.11% vs Away 37.78% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 10% vs Away 11.8% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 50.44% vs Away 49.31% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 84.98% vs Away 84.93% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 68.54% vs Away 69.07% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
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Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Real Salt Lake vs Seattle Sounders FC — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Real Salt Lake a 38% chance to win (Home 36% · Draw 26% · Away 38%). MLS · 2026-09-24 10:30 KST.
How was the 49% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 49%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.