San Diego FC @ Inter Miami CF
SDFAwaySan Diego FC31%
@IMCHomeInter Miami CF43%
Model PickInter Miami CF 43%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 4 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We project a win for Inter Miami CF, driven primarily by their advantages in 'Attack (goals/game)' and 'Home Advantage (deltaPct 3.7)'. However, their deficit in 'Defense (goals against/game)' remains a key swing risk, and with the edge against the market uncalculated, we acknowledge that our model does not beat the market in the long run.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts San Diego FC vs Inter Miami CF by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 43% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Attack (goals/game)+4.7
Defense (goals against/game)-1
Shots on Target %+0.1
Baseline 50% → final home win57.6%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 43%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Inter Miami CF at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Inter Miami CF 12-9-4 vs Away San Diego FC 8-6-11 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home WDDDW vs Away LLLWW (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 2.44 vs Away 1.68 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.84 vs Away 1.68 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 39.18% vs Away 38.38% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 17% vs Away 15.8% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 57.09% vs Away 60.16% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 87.17% vs Away 88.88% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 66.67% vs Away 65.75% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Messi Reaches 100-Goal Milestone
Lionel Messi has reached the historic milestone of 100 goals for Inter Miami CF, highlighting his lethal form and immense momentum heading into this fixture.
Basis: LLM · news · Leo Messi Reaches 100 Goals for Inter Miami CF
Qualitative · Kily Gonzalez's Managerial Debut
New manager Kily Gonzalez takes the helm for Inter Miami, introducing potential tactical shifts and a classic 'new manager bounce' effect.
Basis: LLM · news · New coach Kily Gonzalez guides Inter Miami against
Qualitative · San Diego Mired in Losing Streak
San Diego FC enters this challenging road matchup carrying a multi-game losing streak, desperate to break their negative momentum.
Basis: LLM · news · San Diego FC takes losing streak into match with I
Qualitative · Historic First-Ever Meeting
This marks the first-ever competitive meeting between Inter Miami and San Diego FC, introducing an element of tactical unfamiliarity.
Basis: LLM · news · Inter Miami CF Takes on San Diego FC for the First
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- MATCH PREVIEW: Inter Miami CF Takes on San Diego FC for the First Time on Sunday
- Lionel Messi & Inter Miami host San Diego in cross-conference clash
- San Diego FC tries to ‘flip the script’ with road game against Lionel Messi and Inter Miami
- Line up Inter Miami CF vs San Diego FC, MLS - Liga USA 2026
- San Diego FC takes losing streak into match with Inter Miami
- Where to Watch Inter Miami CF vs. San Diego FC: TV Channel, Start Time and Live Stream
- Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC Odds
- Inter Miami vs San Diego FC: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Lineups
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
San Diego FC vs Inter Miami CF — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Inter Miami CF a 43% chance to win (Home 43% · Draw 26% · Away 31%). MLS · 2026-09-21 08:00 KST.
How was the 57.6% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 57.6%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.