Philadelphia Union @ Sporting Kansas City
PUAwayPhiladelphia Union40%
@SKCHomeSporting Kansas City34%
Model PickPhiladelphia Union 40%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative · 1 folklore
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We favor a Philadelphia Union victory, driven by their current momentum and recent defensive stability. However, negative deltas in Attack and Defense metrics pose significant risks, and our model does not consistently beat the market over the long term.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Philadelphia Union vs Sporting Kansas City by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 34% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)+0.7
Attack (goals/game)-4.7
Defense (goals against/game)-5.6
Shots on Target %+1.2
Baseline 50% → final home win45.3%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 34%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Sporting Kansas City at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Sporting Kansas City 5-3-16 vs Away Philadelphia Union 9-6-10 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home WLLLD vs Away WWWWD (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.08 vs Away 1.84 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 2.46 vs Away 1.56 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 37.94% vs Away 30.12% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 12.1% vs Away 12.5% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 44.3% vs Away 47.39% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 83.68% vs Away 76.42% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 64.97% vs Away 63.21% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Union's Defensive Wall
Philadelphia Union enters the match riding a strong shutout streak, showcasing a highly disciplined defensive form.
Basis: LLM · news · Philadelphia Union bring shutout streak
Qualitative · Pre-Break Focus
With the international break looming, the squad is maintaining high focus to avoid any complacency before the hiatus.
Basis: LLM · news · With international break looming
Folklore · Kick Childhood Cancer Night
Sporting KC hosts their annual 'Kick Childhood Cancer' match, which typically brings an energized atmosphere at Sporting Park.
Basis: LLM · news · Kick Childhood Cancer Night
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Preview | Union look to keep rolling at Sporting Kansas City
- Match Preview: Sporting Kansas City vs. Philadelphia Union
- Surging Union test Sporting Kansas City
- Know Before You Go: Sporting KC vs. Philadelphia Union at Sporting Park for Kick Childhood Cancer Night!
- Philadelphia Union vs Sporting Kansas City: Odds, Spread, and Total
- Philadelphia Union bring shutout streak into matchup with Sporting Kansas City
- Philadelphia Union at Sporting Kansas City: How To Watch
- With international break looming, Union not looking past Sporting Kansas City
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Philadelphia Union vs Sporting Kansas City — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Philadelphia Union a 40% chance to win (Home 34% · Draw 26% · Away 40%). MLS · 2026-09-20 09:30 KST.
How was the 45.3% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 45.3%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.