Orlando City SC @ New England Revolution
OCSAwayOrlando City SC29%
@NERHomeNew England Revolution45%
Model PickNew England Revolution 45%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We favor a New England Revolution victory, driven primarily by 'Home Advantage' and 'Defense'. However, Orlando City's recent form and the uncertainty surrounding Griezmann's injury present significant swing risks, and our model does not consistently outperform the market.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 45% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)+1.5
Attack (goals/game)-0.7
Defense (goals against/game)+6.1
Shots on Target %-0.4
Baseline 50% → final home win60.2%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 45%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New England Revolution at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home New England Revolution 13-4-8 vs Away Orlando City SC 10-4-11 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home WWLWD vs Away LWWWD (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.64 vs Away 1.76 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.24 vs Away 2.24 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 38.89% vs Away 41.5% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 15.6% vs Away 16.1% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 50% vs Away 48.93% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 87.48% vs Away 84.96% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 67.78% vs Away 65.3% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Griezmann Injury Doubt
Orlando City's star attacker Antoine Griezmann sustained an injury, leaving his status highly uncertain for the crucial clash against New England.
Basis: LLM · news · Griezmann hurt, status unknown for Orlando City ag
Qualitative · Revs Return to Gillette Stadium
The New England Revolution make their long-awaited return to Gillette Stadium, gaining a significant home-field advantage for Saturday's matchup.
Basis: LLM · news · Revs make long-awaited return to Gillette Stadium
Qualitative · Orlando Seeks Open Cup Bounce-Back
Orlando City looks to quickly shift focus and rebound in MLS play following their recent exit from the U.S. Open Cup.
Basis: LLM · news · Orlando City looks to rebound from Open Cup exit v
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Preview | Revs make long-awaited return to Gillette Stadium for Saturday night showdown with Orlando City
- The Road Ahead: Orlando City SC at Columbus Crew | U.S. Open Cup
- MATCHDAY GUIDE | Revs vs. Orlando City SC (September 19, 2026)
- Griezmann hurt, status unknown for Orlando City against New England
- September 19, 2026: New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC: First Team to Score Soccer Prediction Market
- Orlando City aims to continue win streak in matchup with the New England Revolution
- Revolution, Orlando meet in critical Eastern showdown. Griezmann in doubt
- New England Revolution v Orlando City Odds
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New England Revolution a 45% chance to win (Home 45% · Draw 26% · Away 29%). MLS · 2026-09-20 08:30 KST.
How was the 60.2% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 60.2%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.