Chicago Fire FC @ Nashville SC
CFFAwayChicago Fire FC29%
@NSHomeNashville SC45%
Model PickNashville SC 45%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 4 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We favor Nashville SC to win, driven primarily by their 'Home Advantage' and superior 'Defense (goals against/game)'. Please note that our model does not currently show a measurable edge against the market, and we acknowledge that consistently beating the market remains a significant challenge.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Chicago Fire FC vs Nashville SC by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 45% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)+2.4
Attack (goals/game)+0.8
Defense (goals against/game)+3.7
Shots on Target %+0.1
Baseline 50% → final home win60.8%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 45%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Nashville SC at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Nashville SC 16-6-3 vs Away Chicago Fire FC 11-6-7 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home DLDWW vs Away LDDDL (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 2 vs Away 1.88 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 0.84 vs Away 1.46 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 38.28% vs Away 37.28% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 18.8% vs Away 14.5% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 53.65% vs Away 51.58% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 86.98% vs Away 84.05% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 63.96% vs Away 66.39% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Nashville's Dominant Home Unbeaten Streak
Nashville SC remains undefeated at GEODIS Park this season, anchoring their stellar campaign on an incredibly strong home-field advantage.
Basis: LLM · news · Nashville SC's stellar season anchored by unbeaten
Qualitative · Nashville Chasing Playoff Clinch
Nashville SC enters the match with high motivation as they look to officially clinch their MLS postseason berth.
Basis: LLM · news · Matchday 27: How Nashville SC can clinch playoffs
Qualitative · Chicago Desperate for Bounce-Back Win
Amidst a continuous slide in the power rankings, Chicago Fire FC is desperate to secure a bounce-back victory against a top-tier Nashville side.
Basis: LLM · news · Chicago Fire FC looking for bounce-back win this w
Qualitative · Marquee Star Matchup
The match features a highly anticipated star-studded showdown as Hany Mukhtar and Robert Lewandowski square off.
Basis: LLM · news · Nashville SC chase playoff spot as Mukhtar, Lewand
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Matchday | Chicago Fire FC Heads to the Music City to Face Nashville SC
- GEODIS Preview: Nashville SC looks to stay unbeaten at home, continue Supporters’ Shield push vs. Chicago Fire
- Matchday 27: How Nashville SC can clinch playoffs
- Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire FC: How to watch live, TV channel, live stream and kick-off time | Goal.com US
- Chicago Fire FC looking for bounce-back win this weekend against top of the table Nashville SC
- Nashville SC v Chicago Fire Odds
- MLS Power Rankings: Chicago's slide continues as Nashville cements top spot
- Important Parking Information for Saturday’s Match
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Chicago Fire FC vs Nashville SC — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Nashville SC a 45% chance to win (Home 45% · Draw 26% · Away 29%). MLS · 2026-09-20 10:30 KST.
How was the 60.8% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 60.8%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.