Charlotte FC @ D.C. United
CFAwayCharlotte FC44%
@DUHomeD.C. United30%
Model PickCharlotte FC 44%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We project a 44% win probability for Charlotte FC, driven primarily by their advantages in Season Form (record) and Attack (goals/game). However, Home Advantage remains a significant risk factor, and our model does not consistently outperform the market over the long term.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Charlotte FC vs D.C. United by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 30% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-7.7
Attack (goals/game)-3.4
Defense (goals against/game)-0.6
Shots on Target %-1.1
Baseline 50% → final home win40.9%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 30%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | D.C. United at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home D.C. United 6-11-7 vs Away Charlotte FC 11-7-7 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home DWDLL vs Away DWDWW (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.25 vs Away 1.8 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.54 vs Away 1.44 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 34.71% vs Away 42.21% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 12% vs Away 16.8% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 38.41% vs Away 45.52% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 75.09% vs Away 86.76% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 63.32% vs Away 64.31% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Key Starters Return
Charlotte FC welcomes back crucial midfielder Ashley Westwood and defender Jona Schnegg, providing a massive boost to their starting lineup.
Basis: LLM · news · Westwood and Schnegg Return
Qualitative · D.C. United's Resurgence
An improving D.C. United side aims to disrupt Charlotte FC's momentum, riding on their recent upswing in form.
Basis: LLM · news · Improving D.C. United aim to cool down Charlotte F
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Match Preview: D.C. United vs. Charlotte FC | Saturday, September 19, 2026
- How to Watch: Charlotte FC at D.C. United | September 19 at 7:30 PM ET on Apple TV
- Improving D.C. United aim to cool down Charlotte FC
- D.C. United takes on Charlotte FC in conference play
- DC United vs Charlotte FC: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Lineups
- Westwood and Schnegg Return | Materials of the Match: Charlotte FC at D.C. United
- DC United vs Charlotte FC: previous stats | MLS - Liga USA 2026
- FC Cincinnati vs. D.C. United: Live game updates, stats, play-by-play
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Charlotte FC vs D.C. United — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Charlotte FC a 44% chance to win (Home 30% · Draw 26% · Away 44%). MLS · 2026-09-20 08:30 KST.
How was the 40.9% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 40.9%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.