Red Bull New York @ New York City FC
RBNYAwayRed Bull New York31%
@NYCFHomeNew York City FC43%
Model PickNew York City FC 43%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects New York City FC with a 43% win probability, primarily driven by their strong 'Defense (goals against/game)' and 'Home Advantage'. However, 'Season Form (record)' presents a disadvantage, and with no calculated edge against the market, the value of this pick remains uncertain.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Red Bull New York vs New York City FC by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 43% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-2.1
Attack (goals/game)+1.5
Defense (goals against/game)+3.7
Shots on Target %+0.8
Baseline 50% → final home win57.7%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 43%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York City FC at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home New York City FC 8-8-9 vs Away Red Bull New York 8-6-11 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home WLDDD vs Away WLDLD (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.56 vs Away 1.32 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.32 vs Away 1.92 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 41.05% vs Away 35.35% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 15.8% vs Away 11.3% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 53.84% vs Away 52.76% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 85% vs Away 84.2% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 68.43% vs Away 64.72% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- MATCH RECAP: Red Bull New York II Fall to New York City FC II 4-2 at Icahn Stadium
- New York City FC II Signs Defender Gabriel Mendonça
- MATCHDAY GUIDE | Revs at New York City FC (September 9, 2026)
- PREVIEW | FC Cincinnati 2 visit Red Bull New York II for final road match of the season
- New York City FC II vs Red Bull New York II - live score, predicted lineups and H2H stats
- GEODIS Preview: Record-setting Nashville SC continues road slate with midweek match at Toronto FC
- MATCH PREVIEW: Red Bull New York II to host FC Cincinnati 2 at MSU Soccer Park on Sunday, September 13
- Matchday | Chicago Fire FC Hosts New England Revolution on Hispanic Heritage Night, pres. by Meridian
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Red Bull New York vs New York City FC — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York City FC a 43% chance to win (Home 43% · Draw 26% · Away 31%). MLS · 2026-09-19 08:30 KST.
How was the 57.7% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 57.7%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.