Philadelphia Union @ San Diego FC
PUAwayPhiladelphia Union33%
@SDFHomeSan Diego FC41%
Model PickSan Diego FC 41%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 4 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We project a San Diego FC victory, primarily driven by their 3.7% advantage in '홈 어드밴티지 / Home Advantage'. However, Philadelphia Union's ongoing shutout streak poses a significant swing risk, and with the edge against the market uncalculated, caution is advised. Please note that our model does not consistently beat the market over the long term.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Philadelphia Union vs San Diego FC by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 41% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Attack (goals/game)+0.3
Defense (goals against/game)+0.5
Shots on Target %+1.1
Baseline 50% → final home win55.6%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 41%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | San Diego FC at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home San Diego FC 8-6-10 vs Away Philadelphia Union 8-6-10 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home LLWWL vs Away WWWDD (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.75 vs Away 1.71 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.54 vs Away 1.63 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 37.98% vs Away 30.46% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 16.5% vs Away 11.8% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 60.2% vs Away 47.52% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 89.03% vs Away 76.24% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 66.1% vs Away 63.33% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Milan Iloski's Revenge Narrative
Philadelphia's Milan Iloski, an Escondido native who expressed he 'never wanted to leave' San Diego, returns with a strong motivation to prove his worth against his former club.
Basis: LLM · news · Milan Iloski elated for San Diego reunion, with po
Qualitative · Union's Shutout Streak Momentum
The Philadelphia Union head into this matchup carrying defensive momentum, looking to extend their current shutout streak on the road.
Basis: LLM · news · Philadelphia Union take shutout streak into matchu
Qualitative · San Diego's Playoff Push
San Diego FC continues their intense push for a playoff spot, holding home-field advantage at Snapdragon Stadium for this crucial matchup.
Basis: LLM · news · SDFC continues playoff push against the Union at S
Qualitative · Grueling West Coast Road Trip
The Philadelphia Union face a demanding travel schedule as they head far West to San Diego for this inaugural cross-conference matchup.
Basis: LLM · news · Union head West to face San Diego FC in inaugural
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Preview | Union head West to face San Diego FC in inaugural matchup
- Cavan Sullivan & Philadelphia Union face San Diego FC test
- SDFC continues playoff push against the Union at Snapdragon Stadium
- Philadelphia Union at San Diego FC: How To Watch
- San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union: previous stats | MLS - Liga USA 2026
- Philadelphia Union take shutout streak into matchup with San Diego FC
- Philadelphia Union vs San Diego FC: Odds, Spread, and Total
- Philadelphia Union vs. San Diego FC - Live Updates - September 14, 2026
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Philadelphia Union vs San Diego FC — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives San Diego FC a 41% chance to win (Home 41% · Draw 26% · Away 33%). MLS · 2026-09-14 10:00 KST.
How was the 55.6% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 55.6%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.