New England Revolution @ Chicago Fire FC
NERAwayNew England Revolution36%
@CFFHomeChicago Fire FC38%
Model PickChicago Fire FC 38%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative · 1 folklore
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We recommend Chicago Fire FC to win, primarily driven by 'Home Advantage (deltaPct 3.7)' and 'Attack (goals/game) (deltaPct 1.8)'. However, the main swing risk lies in their deficit in 'Season Form (record) (deltaPct -3.1)'. Please note that our model does not beat the market in the long run, and the edge against the market for this match is uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire FC by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 38% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-3.1
Attack (goals/game)+1.8
Defense (goals against/game)-1.2
Shots on Target %-0.2
Baseline 50% → final home win51.1%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 38%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Chicago Fire FC at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Chicago Fire FC 11-6-6 vs Away New England Revolution 12-4-8 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home DDDLD vs Away WLWDW (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.91 vs Away 1.63 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.43 vs Away 1.25 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 37.66% vs Away 38.74% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 15.2% vs Away 15.1% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 51.2% vs Away 50.38% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 83.86% vs Away 87.63% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 66.57% vs Away 68.69% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Eastern Conference Showdown
Chicago Fire and New England Revolution are clashing for third place in the Eastern Conference, making this a crucial 'six-pointer' match for their standings.
Basis: LLM · news · Fire, Revolution clash for third place in Eastern
Qualitative · Lewandowski's Impact
Robert Lewandowski recently scored, contributing to a draw, and his presence could significantly boost Chicago Fire's offensive power.
Basis: LLM · news · Robert Lewandowski & Chicago Fire meet New England
Qualitative · Home Team Morale Boost
Chicago Fire recently drew against Inter Miami in front of a club-record crowd, leading to claims they are 'extremely close' to MLS elite, which should boost their morale.
Basis: LLM · news · Club-Record Crowd; Brady: Chicago Fire “Extremely
Folklore · Hispanic Heritage Night
Chicago Fire is hosting the match on Hispanic Heritage Night, which could create a unique and supportive atmosphere from the home crowd.
Basis: LLM · news · Hispanic Heritage Night
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Matchday | Chicago Fire FC Hosts New England Revolution on Hispanic Heritage Night, pres. by Meridian
- Preview | Revs close road swing with classic six-pointer vs. Chicago Fire FC on Sunday
- Robert Lewandowski & Chicago Fire meet New England Revolution
- Chicago Fire FC vs New England Revolution: Where to watch, live stream, TV channel and kick-off time | Goal.com US
- MATCHDAY GUIDE | Revs at Chicago Fire FC (September 13, 2026)
- Chicago Fire v New England Revolution Odds
- Match Recap | Chicago Fire FC Plays Inter Miami CF to 1-1 Draw in Front of Club-Record Crowd at Soldier Field
- Where to watch Chicago Fire vs. Inter Miami MLS soccer for free today
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire FC — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Chicago Fire FC a 38% chance to win (Home 38% · Draw 26% · Away 36%). MLS · 2026-09-14 06:30 KST.
How was the 51.1% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 51.1%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.