Red Bull New York @ Columbus Crew
RBNYAwayRed Bull New York32%
@CCHomeColumbus Crew42%
Model PickColumbus Crew 42%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We project a Columbus Crew victory, driven primarily by 'Home Advantage' (deltaPct 3.7) and 'Defense (goals against/game)' (deltaPct 1.8). The primary swing risk is the negative margin in 'Shots on Target %' (deltaPct -0.4), with the edge against the market remaining uncalculated. We transparently acknowledge that our model does not beat the market over the long term.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Red Bull New York vs Columbus Crew by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 42% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)+0.2
Attack (goals/game)+0.8
Defense (goals against/game)+1.8
Shots on Target %-0.4
Baseline 50% → final home win56.1%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 42%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Columbus Crew at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Columbus Crew 6-5-13 vs Away Red Bull New York 7-6-11 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home LWLLL vs Away LDLDL (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.46 vs Away 1.33 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.71 vs Away 2 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 32.86% vs Away 35.44% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 14.1% vs Away 11.6% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 57.3% vs Away 53.24% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 88.16% vs Away 84.21% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 67.27% vs Away 64.25% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · RBNY Roster Depth
Red Bull New York added RBNY II winger Dennis Nelich and midfielder Sekou Kone on short-term agreements just before their match against LAFC, potentially signaling a rotation to rest key starters.
Basis: LLM · news · Red Bull New York Add RBNY II Winger Dennis Nelich
Qualitative · RBNY Road Trip Fatigue
Red Bull New York is facing Columbus Crew shortly after playing an away game against LAFC, suggesting potential player fatigue from travel and a short rest period.
Basis: LLM · news · Red Bull New York Continues Road Trip with a Face
Qualitative · RBNY Recent Loss
Red Bull New York lost 2-0 to LAFC in their most recent match, which could impact team morale and add pressure for the upcoming game.
Basis: LLM · news · LAFC 2-0 Red Bull NY (10 Sep, 2026) Final Score -
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Red Bull New York Add RBNY II Winger Dennis Nelich and Midfielder Sekou Kone on Short-Term Agreement Ahead of Match Against LAFC
- Match report: Philadelphia Union II 1-0 Columbus Crew 2
- 2026 MLS NEXT Pro Matchweek 27 Power Rankings
- MATCH PREVIEW, pres. by Toyota: Red Bull New York Continues Road Trip with a Face Off Against LAFC on Wednesday Night at BMO Stadium
- MLS Player Status Report: Matchday 25 (Wednesday, September 9)
- Where to watch New York Red Bulls today? Live soccer streams and TV channel for upcoming games
- MLS Power Rankings: Griezmann catapults Orlando into the playoff picture
- Major League Soccer
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Red Bull New York vs Columbus Crew — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Columbus Crew a 42% chance to win (Home 42% · Draw 26% · Away 32%). MLS · 2026-09-13 08:30 KST.
How was the 56.1% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 56.1%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.