Portland Timbers @ FC Dallas
PTAwayPortland Timbers33%
@FDHomeFC Dallas41%
Model PickFC Dallas 41%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 4 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We project an FC Dallas victory with a 41% probability, heavily backed by the '홈 어드밴티지 / Home Advantage' driver which shows a deltaPct of 3.7. However, the primary swing risk lies in their '시즌 폼(전적) / Season Form (record)' with a deltaPct of -0.9, while the edge against the market remains uncalculated. We transparently acknowledge that our model does not beat the market in the long run, advising a cautious approach.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 41% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-0.9
Attack (goals/game)+0.3
Defense (goals against/game)+1
Shots on Target %+0.6
Baseline 50% → final home win54.7%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 41%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | FC Dallas at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home FC Dallas 11-7-6 vs Away Portland Timbers 9-5-10 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home WWDLW vs Away DWLDW (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.96 vs Away 1.92 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.71 vs Away 1.88 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 39.18% vs Away 34.94% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 18.4% vs Away 16.7% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 42.22% vs Away 50.24% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 78.97% vs Away 86.7% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 69.76% vs Away 62.18% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Janssen's Scoring Spree
Portland Timbers' Vincent Janssen is on a hot streak, scoring 3 goals in a recent match and earning MLS Player of the Matchday honors.
Basis: LLM · news · Vincent Janssen scores first 3 MLS goals in Timber
Qualitative · Dallas Road Warriors
FC Dallas has secured their seventh road win of the season, demonstrating strong performance away from home.
Basis: LLM · news · FC Dallas Records Seventh Road Win of the Season
Qualitative · St. Louis Unbeaten Run
St. Louis CITY SC extended their unbeaten streak to 15 games with a draw against the Portland Timbers, suggesting the Timbers might struggle to secure wins against strong opponents.
Basis: LLM · news · St. Louis City ties Timbers 2-2 to extend unbeaten
Qualitative · Velde's Birthday Brace
Portland Timbers' Velde scored a brace on his birthday, contributing to the team's draw. This indicates that personal motivation can positively impact performance.
Basis: LLM · news · Birthday boy Velde bags brace as Portland Timbers
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- RECAP | Birthday boy Velde bags brace as Portland Timbers draw 2-2 with St. Louis CITY SC
- Match Recap: FC Dallas Records Seventh Road Win of the Season 2-1 over Minnesota United FC
- FC Dallas v Portland Timbers Odds
- FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Lineups
- Highlights: Portland Timbers 2-2 St. Louis CITY (MLS)
- Portland Timbers Forward Vincent Janssen Named MLS Player of the Matchday presented by Michelob ULTRA for Matchday 24
- Where to watch Portland Timbers today? Live soccer streams and TV channels for upcoming games
- St. Louis City ties Timbers 2-2 to extend unbeaten streak to 15
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives FC Dallas a 41% chance to win (Home 41% · Draw 26% · Away 33%). MLS · 2026-09-13 09:30 KST.
How was the 54.7% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 54.7%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.