New York City FC @ Real Salt Lake
NYCFAwayNew York City FC32%
@RSLHomeReal Salt Lake42%
Model PickReal Salt Lake 42%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We project a Real Salt Lake victory (42% probability), driven primarily by their advantages in '시즌 폼(전적) / Season Form (record)' (deltaPct 4.4) and '홈 어드밴티지 / Home Advantage' (deltaPct 3.7). However, their deficit in '수비력(실점/경기) / Defense (goals against/game)' (deltaPct -1.4) and a recent 10-game winless stretch present a major swing risk. The edge against the market is uncalculated, and we transparently acknowledge that our model does not beat the market over the long term.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts New York City FC vs Real Salt Lake by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 42% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)+4.4
Attack (goals/game)+0.4
Defense (goals against/game)-1.4
Shots on Target %-0.4
Baseline 50% → final home win56.7%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 42%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Real Salt Lake at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Real Salt Lake 8-5-10 vs Away New York City FC 7-8-9 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home LDLLL vs Away LDDDL (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.61 vs Away 1.54 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.61 vs Away 1.38 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 38.15% vs Away 40.86% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 12.9% vs Away 15.4% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 49.46% vs Away 54.13% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 84.89% vs Away 85.15% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 69.16% vs Away 68.78% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · NYCFC Coach Absence
NYCFC coach Pascal Jansen will miss the team's next match due to 'personal matters,' potentially impacting team strategy and leadership.
Basis: LLM · news · NYCFC coach Pascal Jansen will miss team’s next ma
Qualitative · RSL Winless Streak
Real Salt Lake's MLS winless streak has reached 10 games after a 2-1 loss to Houston Dynamo, which could negatively affect team morale and performance.
Basis: LLM · news · Real Salt Lake’s MLS winless stretch reaches 10 wi
Qualitative · RSL Late Game Concessions
Real Salt Lake has a tendency to concede late goals, as seen in their 2-2 draw against LAFC and 2-1 loss to Houston, indicating potential issues with late-game focus.
Basis: LLM · news · RSL Concedes Again Late, Drops 2-1 Decision at Hou
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Real Salt Lake Secures Comeback 2-2 Draw Against LAFC
- Real Salt Lake v New York City Odds
- Real Salt Lake’s MLS winless stretch reaches 10 with 2-1 loss to Houston Dynamo
- Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC: Kalshi Promo Code & $10 Bonus
- Transfer Deadline: Who was your club's biggest summer signing?
- Where to watch New York City FC today? Live soccer streams & TV channel for upcoming games
- Mateusz Bogusz scores game-winner in the 87th minute as the Dynamo beat Real Salt Lake 2-1
- NYCFC coach Pascal Jansen will miss team’s next match to tend to ‘personal matters’
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
New York City FC vs Real Salt Lake — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Real Salt Lake a 42% chance to win (Home 42% · Draw 26% · Away 32%). MLS · 2026-09-13 10:30 KST.
How was the 56.7% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 56.7%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.