Houston Dynamo FC @ San Jose Earthquakes
HDFAwayHouston Dynamo FC35%
@SJEHomeSan Jose Earthquakes39%
Model PickSan Jose Earthquakes 39%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 4 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
The model suggests a bet on San Jose Earthquakes, primarily driven by '홈 어드밴티지 / Home Advantage' (deltaPct 3.7) and '공격력(득점/경기) / Attack (goals/game)' (deltaPct 2.9). However, a key swing risk lies in '시즌 폼(전적) / Season Form (record)' which shows a negative delta of -2.3%, and the edge against the market is uncalculated. We honestly acknowledge that our model does not beat the market in the long run, advising a cautious approach.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Houston Dynamo FC vs San Jose Earthquakes by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 39% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-2.3
Attack (goals/game)+2.9
Defense (goals against/game)-2.3
Shots on Target %+0.5
Baseline 50% → final home win52.4%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 39%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | San Jose Earthquakes at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home San Jose Earthquakes 11-5-8 vs Away Houston Dynamo FC 13-4-7 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home WDDLL vs Away WDDLW (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.79 vs Away 1.33 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.5 vs Away 1.13 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 37.65% vs Away 34.59% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 15.3% vs Away 12% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 49.15% vs Away 47.3% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 82.24% vs Away 87.4% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 66.57% vs Away 60.69% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Quakes Snap Losing Streak
The San Jose Earthquakes broke their losing streak with a 3-2 victory over San Diego FC, potentially boosting team morale.
Basis: LLM · news · San Jose rekindle winning ways
Qualitative · Dynamo Top Seed Push
Houston Dynamo FC are in a critical period, aiming to close in on the Western Conference's top seed.
Basis: LLM · news · close in on Western Conference top seed
Qualitative · Quakes Key Defender Out
San Jose Earthquakes' Max Floriani received a red card in the last match, making him unavailable for this game.
Basis: LLM · news · RED CARD - Max Floriani
Qualitative · Dynamo Tight Schedule
Houston Dynamo FC are facing a demanding schedule, having recently played a home match against Real Salt Lake and traveling for an interconference matchup versus Charlotte FC.
Basis: LLM · news · midweek home match versus Real Salt Lake, travel e
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- MATCH RECAP: Earthquakes 3, San Diego FC 2
- MATCH PREVIEW: Houston Dynamo FC look to close in on Western Conference top seed in midweek home match versus Real Salt Lake
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Lineups
- HIGHLIGHTS: Houston Dynamo FC vs. Real Salt Lake | September 9, 2026
- Highlights: San Diego FC 2-3 San Jose Earthquakes (MLS)
- San Diego FC vs San Jose Earthquakes: Where to Watch, Live Stream & Kick-Off Time | Goal.com US
- MATCH PREVIEW: Houston Dynamo FC travel east for an interconference matchup versus Charlotte FC
- San Jose vs. Houston (13 Sep, 2026) Live Score
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Houston Dynamo FC vs San Jose Earthquakes — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives San Jose Earthquakes a 39% chance to win (Home 39% · Draw 26% · Away 35%). MLS · 2026-09-13 11:30 KST.
How was the 52.4% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 52.4%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.