Charlotte FC @ FC Cincinnati
CFAwayCharlotte FC40%
@FCHomeFC Cincinnati34%
Model PickCharlotte FC 40%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 4 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We recommend Charlotte FC to win, with our model projecting their victory probability at 40%. The primary driver for this pick is Charlotte FC's advantage in '수비력(실점/경기) / Defense (goals against/game)', while the main swing risk lies in FC Cincinnati's edge in '홈 어드밴티지 / Home Advantage' and '공격력(득점/경기) / Attack (goals/game)'. Although the edge against the market is uncalculated for this match, we transparently acknowledge that our model does not beat the market over the long term.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Charlotte FC vs FC Cincinnati by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 34% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-3.4
Attack (goals/game)+2.4
Defense (goals against/game)-6.6
Shots on Target %+0.2
Baseline 50% → final home win46.3%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 34%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | FC Cincinnati at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home FC Cincinnati 8-7-8 vs Away Charlotte FC 11-6-7 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home LLDWD vs Away WDWWD (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 2.13 vs Away 1.75 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 2.43 vs Away 1.38 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 43.32% vs Away 41.99% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 17.1% vs Away 16.2% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 49.74% vs Away 46.07% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 85.05% vs Away 86.89% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 65.41% vs Away 63.77% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Key Midfielder Out
FC Cincinnati's crucial midfielder, Obinna Nwobodo, received a red card in their last match and will be unavailable for the upcoming game against Charlotte FC.
Basis: LLM · news · RED CARD - Obinna Nwobodo
Qualitative · Rescheduled Match Fatigue
FC Cincinnati's match against D.C. United was postponed due to inclement weather, potentially leading to player fatigue and a dip in focus from the unexpected schedule change.
Basis: LLM · news · postponed due to inclement weather
Qualitative · Potential New Signings Debut
Matchday 24 of MLS mentions potential debuts for new signings, which could introduce unexpected tactical shifts and influence the flow of the game for either team.
Basis: LLM · news · New Signings and Potential Debuts
Qualitative · Heavy Loss Aftermath
FC Cincinnati suffered a crushing 0-5 defeat to Philadelphia Union, which could negatively impact team morale and confidence heading into this match.
Basis: LLM · news · Philadelphia Union 5, FC Cincinnati 0
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- RECAP | Philadelphia Union 5, FC Cincinnati 0
- FC Cincinnati vs. DC United postponed due to inclement weather
- FC Cincinnati v Charlotte FC Odds
- FC Cincinnati game against D.C. United postponed
- FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte FC: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Lineups
- Cincinnati vs. Charlotte (13 Sep, 2026) Live Score
- MATCHDAY PREVIEW presented by Kiesland | The Orange and Blue return home to face D.C. United at TQL Stadium
- FC Cincinnati vs. DC United enters weather delay
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Charlotte FC vs FC Cincinnati — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Charlotte FC a 40% chance to win (Home 34% · Draw 26% · Away 40%). MLS · 2026-09-13 08:30 KST.
How was the 46.3% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 46.3%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.