Atlanta United FC @ D.C. United
AUFAwayAtlanta United FC37%
@DUHomeD.C. United37%
Model PickD.C. United 37%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We select D.C. United to win, though the model projects an identical 37% probability for both sides, leaving the edge against the market uncalculated. The primary support comes from 'Home Advantage (deltaPct 3.7)', while the significant deficit in 'Season Form (record) (deltaPct -6.7)' remains the critical swing risk. Please note that our model does not beat the market over the long term, and this prediction should be approached with caution.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Atlanta United FC vs D.C. United by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 37% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-6.7
Attack (goals/game)+0.6
Defense (goals against/game)+1.1
Shots on Target %+0.7
Baseline 50% → final home win49.4%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 37%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | D.C. United at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home D.C. United 6-10-7 vs Away Atlanta United FC 6-4-14 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home WDLLD vs Away LDLWW (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.3 vs Away 1.21 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.61 vs Away 1.79 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 35.19% vs Away 30.84% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 12.1% vs Away 10.7% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 38.82% vs Away 50.48% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 75.15% vs Away 85.21% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 63.96% vs Away 70.08% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Embolo's Debut
Atlanta United's new forward, Breel Embolo, is set to make his debut against Inter Miami, which could significantly alter the team's offensive dynamics.
Basis: LLM · news · Breel Embolo set for Atlanta United debut vs. Inte
Qualitative · Short-Term Signing
Atlanta United has signed Andrew Jardines to a short-term agreement, adding depth or providing cover for specific positions within the squad.
Basis: LLM · news · Atlanta United signs Andrew Jardines to Short-Term
Qualitative · Fixture Congestion
Atlanta United FC will play Orlando City SC on September 10th, followed closely by their match against D.C. United, suggesting potential player fatigue from a tight schedule.
Basis: LLM · news · Atlanta United FC - Orlando City SC, Sep 10, 2026
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- ATLvsLA 05-09-2026
- MATCH PREVIEW: Inter Miami CF Set to Host Atlanta United FC this Saturday
- DC United vs Atlanta United: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Lineups
- DC Utd v Atlanta Utd Odds
- Breel Embolo set for Atlanta United debut vs. Inter Miami
- FC Cincinnati in search of better balance vs. D.C. United
- Atlanta United signs Andrew Jardines to Short-Term Agreement
- Atlanta United FC: news, squad and fixtures
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Atlanta United FC vs D.C. United — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives D.C. United a 37% chance to win (Home 37% · Draw 26% · Away 37%). MLS · 2026-09-13 08:30 KST.
How was the 49.4% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 49.4%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.