San Jose Earthquakes @ FC Cincinnati
SJEAwaySan Jose Earthquakes43%
@FCHomeFC Cincinnati31%
Model PickSan Jose Earthquakes 43%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects a 43% chance for a San Jose Earthquakes victory, favoring them despite FC Cincinnati's home advantage. Key drivers for this projection are San Jose's superior 'Defense (goals against/game)' (deltaPct -8) and 'Attack (goals/game)' (deltaPct 2.2), while FC Cincinnati aims to bounce back from a recent rivalry defeat. However, 'Season Form (record)' (deltaPct -6.7) poses a risk for San Jose. The edge against the market is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Cincinnati by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 31% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-6.7
Attack (goals/game)+2.2
Defense (goals against/game)-8
Shots on Target %+0.4
Baseline 50% → final home win41.6%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 31%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | FC Cincinnati at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home FC Cincinnati 6-5-6 vs Away San Jose Earthquakes 10-3-4 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home LWWDL vs Away DLWLL (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 2.41 vs Away 2.06 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 2.47 vs Away 1.18 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 42.48% vs Away 39.83% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 18.4% vs Away 15.2% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 48.52% vs Away 47.38% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 84.43% vs Away 81.11% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 61.94% vs Away 62.3% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Bounce Back Game
FC Cincinnati is highly motivated to bounce back after a recent rivalry defeat, making this home game against the San Jose Earthquakes a crucial opportunity to regain momentum.
Basis: LLM · news · bounce back after rivalry defeat
Qualitative · Evander's Second-Half Push
Evander aims to spearhead FC Cincinnati's second-half turnaround, which could significantly boost the team's overall performance and morale.
Basis: LLM · news · Evander aims to lead FC Cincinnati's second-half t
Qualitative · Rare Road Match
The San Jose Earthquakes are playing a rare road match at TQL Stadium, which could impact their performance due to unfamiliar surroundings and travel fatigue.
Basis: LLM · news · rare road match at TQL Stadium
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- MATCH PREVIEW: San Jose faces FC Cincinnati in rare road match at TQL Stadium
- MATCHDAY PREVIEW presented by Kiesland | FC Cincinnati look to bounce back after rivalry defeat in home matchup with San Jose Earthquakes
- Evander vs. Werner: FC Cincinnati welcome San Jose Earthquakes
- FC Cincinnati looks to bounce back against San Jose Earthquakes
- FC Cincinnati look to bounce back against San Jose Earthquakes
- TUNE IN | FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes
- FC Cincinnati v San Jose Earthquakes Odds
- Cincinnati faces the San Jose Earthquakes in non-conference action
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Cincinnati — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives San Jose Earthquakes a 43% chance to win (Home 31% · Draw 26% · Away 43%). MLS · 2026-08-02 08:30 KST.
How was the 41.6% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 41.6%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.