San Diego FC @ Minnesota United FC
SDFAwaySan Diego FC36%
@MUFHomeMinnesota United FC38%
Model PickMinnesota United FC 38%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects Minnesota United FC with a 38% win probability, slightly favoring them over San Diego FC (36%) and a draw (26%). Key factors supporting this include Minnesota's 'Home Advantage' (deltaPct 3.7) and superior 'Defense (goals against/game)' (deltaPct 1.5). However, a significant risk lies in their weaker 'Attack (goals/game)' (deltaPct -4.4), and the market edge for this pick is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts San Diego FC vs Minnesota United FC by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 38% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)+1.4
Attack (goals/game)-4.4
Defense (goals against/game)+1.5
Shots on Target %-0.7
Baseline 50% → final home win51.5%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 38%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Minnesota United FC at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Minnesota United FC 6-5-6 vs Away San Diego FC 5-5-7 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home DLDLL vs Away WLLDW (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.12 vs Away 1.82 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.41 vs Away 1.65 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 35.27% vs Away 39.8% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 8.9% vs Away 15.8% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 47.29% vs Away 61.27% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 82.75% vs Away 89.2% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 62.5% vs Away 63.27% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Loons' Playoff Pressure
A loss to San Diego would drop Minnesota United out of the MLS Cup Playoff picture, creating immense pressure and motivation for the Loons in this critical match.
Basis: LLM · news · Loss to San Diego would drop Loons out of MLS Cup
Qualitative · San Diego's Road Test
San Diego FC faces a critical road test in Minnesota as they chase a playoff spot, which could significantly impact their focus and game management.
Basis: LLM · news · San Diego FC’s playoff chase reaches a critical ro
Qualitative · Loons' Finishing Woes
Minnesota United is looking to find their finishing form against San Diego, indicating recent struggles with converting chances into goals.
Basis: LLM · news · Black and Blue Look to Find Finishing Form Against
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Preview | Black and Blue Look to Find Finishing Form Against San Diego
- Loss to San Diego would drop Loons out of MLS Cup Playoff picture
- August 1, 2026: Minnesota vs San Diego FC Soccer Prediction Market
- San Diego FC’s playoff chase reaches a critical road test in Minnesota
- Line up Minnesota United FC vs San Diego FC, MLS - Liga USA 2026
- Minnesota Utd v San Diego FC Odds
- Minnesota United Extends Goalkeeper Wessel Speel, Loans Him to Almere City FC
- Minnesota United FC vs San Diego FC: previous stats | MLS - Liga USA 2026
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
San Diego FC vs Minnesota United FC — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Minnesota United FC a 38% chance to win (Home 38% · Draw 26% · Away 36%). MLS · 2026-08-02 09:30 KST.
How was the 51.5% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 51.5%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.