Orlando City SC @ Red Bull New York
OCSAwayOrlando City SC37%
@RBNYHomeRed Bull New York37%
Model PickRed Bull New York 37%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 4 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model predicts a Red Bull New York victory, assigning them a 37% win probability, identical to Orlando City SC. Key factors supporting this pick are Red Bull New York's "Home Advantage" and superior "Defense (goals against/game)." However, Orlando City SC's stronger "Season Form (record)" presents a significant swing risk. The market edge for this pick is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Orlando City SC vs Red Bull New York by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 37% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-4.5
Attack (goals/game)-0.7
Defense (goals against/game)+2.6
Shots on Target %-0.9
Baseline 50% → final home win50.2%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 37%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Red Bull New York at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Red Bull New York 6-4-7 vs Away Orlando City SC 6-2-9 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home LLWDW vs Away WWLWD (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.53 vs Away 1.65 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 2.18 vs Away 2.59 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 36.32% vs Away 42.27% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 11.7% vs Away 15.1% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 53.6% vs Away 45.63% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 83.52% vs Away 83.29% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 60.63% vs Away 61.66% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Pre-Leagues Cup Finale
Orlando City SC is playing its final match before the Leagues Cup break, which could motivate players to finish strong and carry momentum into the hiatus.
Basis: LLM · news · close out pre-Leagues Cup stretch
Qualitative · Orlando's Win Streak Bid
Orlando City is on an improving run, aiming for their third consecutive win, which could significantly boost team morale and confidence.
Basis: LLM · news · Improving Orlando City goes for 3rd win in row
Qualitative · Tsukada Loaned Out
Yutaro Tsukada has been loaned from Orlando City SC to Rhode Island FC, potentially impacting Orlando's squad depth for this match.
Basis: LLM · news · Orlando City SC loans Yutaro Tsukada to Rhode Isla
Qualitative · Crepeau's All-Star Form
Canada's Maxime Crepeau made 6 saves in an incredible MLS All-Star Game cameo, which could translate to heightened confidence and performance in this match.
Basis: LLM · news · Canada’s Maxime Crepeau makes 6 saves in incredibl
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- MATCH PREVIEW, pres. by Toyota: Red Bull New York Hosts Orlando City SC at Sports Illustrated Stadium on Saturday Night
- Orlando City heads to Red Bull New York to close out pre-Leagues Cup stretch
- Improving Orlando City goes for 3rd win in row at New York
- Red Bull New York vs Orlando City SC: Odds, Spread, and Total
- KEYS TO THE GAME, pres. by Toyota: Red Bull New York vs. Orlando City SC
- Orlando City SC loans Yutaro Tsukada to Rhode Island FC
- Red Bull NY Offers Discounted Tickets to Service Members for 2026 Season
- Lion Links: 7/30/26
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Orlando City SC vs Red Bull New York — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Red Bull New York a 37% chance to win (Home 37% · Draw 26% · Away 37%). MLS · 2026-08-02 08:30 KST.
How was the 50.2% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 50.2%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.