New England Revolution @ CF Montréal
NERAwayNew England Revolution45%
@CMHomeCF Montréal29%
Model PickNew England Revolution 45%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 4 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects a 45% chance for a New England Revolution win, favoring them over CF Montréal (29%) and a draw (26%). This is primarily driven by New England Revolution's superior 'Defense (goals against/game)' and 'Season Form (record)', though 'Home Advantage' could benefit CF Montréal. The market edge for this pick is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts New England Revolution vs CF Montréal by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 29% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-7.4
Attack (goals/game)-2
Defense (goals against/game)-4.6
Shots on Target %-0.8
Baseline 50% → final home win39%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 29%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | CF Montréal at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home CF Montréal 4-3-10 vs Away New England Revolution 9-2-5 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home LLDDL vs Away WDLWL (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.29 vs Away 1.63 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.94 vs Away 1.19 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 34.98% vs Away 40.24% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 10.6% vs Away 16.5% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 47.53% vs Away 48.82% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 81.09% vs Away 87.15% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 62.6% vs Away 65.55% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Key Defender Green Card
New England Revolution defender Ilay Feingold has been granted a U.S. Green Card, which could provide greater roster flexibility and a morale boost for the team.
Basis: LLM · news · Revolution defender Ilay Feingold granted U.S. Gre
Qualitative · Montreal Homestand
CF Montréal is continuing an important homestand, which could provide a significant home-field advantage and boost their performance with fan support.
Basis: LLM · news · Important CF Montreal homestand continues against
Qualitative · Eastern Conference Rivalry
As Eastern Conference rivals, this match between CF Montréal and the New England Revolution carries extra weight for conference standings and bragging rights.
Basis: LLM · news · Eastern Conference play
Qualitative · Revs' Consistency Drive
Despite their current strong form, the New England Revolution's coach is pushing for greater consistency, suggesting a focused and motivated squad.
Basis: LLM · news · Mitrovic backs high-flying New England to keep str
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- MATCHDAY GUIDE | Revs at CF Montréal (August 1, 2026)
- CF Montreal hosts the New England Revolution in Eastern Conference play
- CF Montreal v New England Revolution Odds
- CF Montréal takes on New England Revolution Saturday at Stade Saputo
- Preview | Revs head north of the border for Saturday night showdown with CF Montréal
- New England Revolution host Atlanta United in Eastern Conference action
- CF Montreal vs New England Revolution: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Lineups
- Mitrovic backs high-flying New England to keep striving for consistency
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
New England Revolution vs CF Montréal — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New England Revolution a 45% chance to win (Home 29% · Draw 26% · Away 45%). MLS · 2026-08-02 08:30 KST.
How was the 39% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 39%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.