Charlotte FC @ Chicago Fire FC
CFAwayCharlotte FC30%
@CFFHomeChicago Fire FC44%
Model PickChicago Fire FC 44%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 4 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects Chicago Fire FC with a 44% chance of winning, higher than Charlotte FC (30%) or a draw (26%). This prediction is primarily driven by Chicago's superior 'Season Form (record)' and 'Home Advantage'. However, Charlotte FC's edge in 'Shots on Target %' presents a potential swing risk. The market edge for this pick is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Charlotte FC vs Chicago Fire FC by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 44% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)+4.8
Attack (goals/game)+1.4
Defense (goals against/game)+0.6
Shots on Target %-1.1
Baseline 50% → final home win59.5%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 44%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Chicago Fire FC at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Chicago Fire FC 8-2-6 vs Away Charlotte FC 7-4-6 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home LLWWW vs Away WDWWL (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.88 vs Away 1.65 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.38 vs Away 1.47 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 35.34% vs Away 42.78% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 13.5% vs Away 14.9% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 52.68% vs Away 46% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 82.52% vs Away 86.89% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 65.13% vs Away 61.26% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Charlotte's Momentum
Charlotte FC is currently on a roll and looking to extend their good form by adding to Chicago Fire's recent struggles.
Basis: LLM · news · Charlotte looks to keep rolling, add to Fire's rec
Qualitative · Chicago's Recent Woes
Chicago Fire has been struggling recently, and Charlotte FC will aim to capitalize on their poor form.
Basis: LLM · news · add to Fire's recent woes
Qualitative · Zinckernagel All-Star Duty
Philip Zinckernagel of Chicago Fire represented his team at the MLS All-Star Game in Charlotte, potentially leading to pre/post-game fatigue.
Basis: LLM · news · Philip Zinckernagel Represents Chicago Fire FC at
Qualitative · Chicago's Busy August
Chicago Fire FC faces a busy August schedule, which could impact player rotation and overall squad fatigue.
Basis: LLM · news · Chicago Fire FC notebook: Gregg Berhalter on Cente
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Matchday | Philip Zinckernagel Represents Chicago Fire FC at 2026 MLS All-Star Game in Charlotte
- Let the Good Times Roll | Materials of The Match: Charlotte FC at Chicago Fire
- Chicago Fire v Charlotte FC Odds
- Charlotte looks to keep rolling, add to Fire's recent woes
- Christopher Morales Records Three Assists in 2026 MLS NEXT All-Star Game
- MLS: Chicago Fire FC vs. Charlotte FC Preview, Odds, Predictions (Aug 1)
- MLS All-Stars: Starting XI for 2026 MLS All-Star Game
- Chicago Fire FC notebook: Gregg Berhalter on Center Backs, Busy August, Robbie Fowler, Fire II and more
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Charlotte FC vs Chicago Fire FC — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Chicago Fire FC a 44% chance to win (Home 44% · Draw 26% · Away 30%). MLS · 2026-08-02 09:30 KST.
How was the 59.5% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 59.5%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.