Atlanta United FC @ Philadelphia Union
AUFAwayAtlanta United FC35%
@PUHomePhiladelphia Union39%
Model PickPhiladelphia Union 39%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative · 1 folklore
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects a 39% win probability for Philadelphia Union, surpassing Atlanta United FC's 35%. This is primarily driven by Philadelphia's 'Home Advantage' (deltaPct 3.7) and superior 'Attack (goals/game)' (deltaPct 1.8). However, Atlanta's stronger 'Season Form (record)' (deltaPct -2.1) could be a swing factor. The market edge for this pick is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Atlanta United FC vs Philadelphia Union by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 39% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-2.1
Attack (goals/game)+1.8
Defense (goals against/game)-0.4
Shots on Target %-0.4
Baseline 50% → final home win52.7%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 39%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Philadelphia Union at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Philadelphia Union 3-4-10 vs Away Atlanta United FC 3-3-11 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home WWLDL vs Away LDLLL (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.29 vs Away 1 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.82 vs Away 1.76 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 30.04% vs Away 32.46% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 8.8% vs Away 7.9% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 45.55% vs Away 52.94% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 74.61% vs Away 85.44% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 60.26% vs Away 65.49% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Union's Hot Streak
The Philadelphia Union are on a hot streak, having recently secured a 1-0 victory over Seattle Sounders FC, and aim to maintain this momentum against Atlanta United.
Basis: LLM · news · Union look to stay hot against Atlanta United, Phi
Qualitative · Atlanta's Culture Shift
Atlanta United is emphasizing concentration and a culture change heading into their match against Philadelphia, which could impact their overall performance.
Basis: LLM · news · Concentration, culture change the cause for 5-Stri
Qualitative · Atlanta's New Signings
Atlanta United has announced more transfers after the arrivals of Alonso and Diaz, potentially strengthening the squad and introducing new tactical variations.
Basis: LLM · news · more transfers coming after Alonso and Diaz arriva
Folklore · Military Appreciation Day
The Philadelphia Union's home game features 'Military Appreciation Day,' which could boost home crowd enthusiasm and positively impact player morale.
Basis: LLM · news · Military Appreciation Day
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC: How To Watch
- How to Watch: Atlanta United Unified returns to action Saturday against Philadelphia Union Unified
- Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC: Odds, Spread, and Total
- Preview | Union look to stay hot against Atlanta United
- Match preview: Concentration, culture change the cause for 5-Stripes headed into matchup with Philadelphia Union
- Line up Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC, MLS - Liga USA 2026
- Philadelphia Union holds on over Seattle Sounders F.C., 1-0
- Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC Prediction & Booking Code — 1 August 2026
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Atlanta United FC vs Philadelphia Union — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Philadelphia Union a 39% chance to win (Home 39% · Draw 26% · Away 35%). MLS · 2026-08-02 08:30 KST.
How was the 52.7% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 52.7%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.