San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
SDPAwaySan Diego Padres31%
@LADHomeLos Angeles Dodgers69%
Model PickLos Angeles Dodgers 69%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 1 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects a 69% win probability for the Los Angeles Dodgers, primarily supported by their superior 'Pythagorean Expectation' and 'Team WHIP'. However, the Padres' better 'Last 10 Games Form' partially offsets the Dodgers' advantage. With no market edge calculated, it's difficult to determine if this pick offers value against the market.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 69% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+4.1
Season Win%+1
Last 10 Games Form-1.2
Home/Away Split+1.8
Team OBP+3
Team SLG+2
Team ERA+2.8
Team WHIP+3.1
Starting Pitcher Matchup-0.5
Baseline 50% → final home win68.5%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Los Angeles Dodgers at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 62.8% (788 RS/592 RA) vs Away 52.6% (695/657) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 97-61 (.614) vs Away 88-70 (.557) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 7-3 vs Away 8-2 · Home L1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 51-29 · away team away 39-41 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .339 vs Away .318 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .426 vs Away .398 (OPS .765/.716) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.59 vs Away 3.94 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.15 vs Away 1.29 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Tyler Glasnow (ERA 3.46) vs Away Nick Pivetta (ERA 3.30) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .298 · K 1231 · BB 616 / Away BABIP .285 · K 1272 · BB 540 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 3.08 · HR9 1.11 / Away K/BB 2.39 · HR9 1.13 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 1 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Wild Card Edge
The Padres defeated the Dodgers yesterday, taking sole possession of the NL Wild Card lead, which should significantly boost their motivation for this game.
Basis: LLM · news · Padres down Dodgers, grab solo lead in NL wild-car
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/22/2026
- Dodgers 7-0 Padres (Sep 22, 2026) Game Recap
- San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
- Dodgers on Deck: Tuesday, September 22 vs. Padres
- How to watch Padres vs. Dodgers: TV channel and streaming options for September 23
- Padres Announce Starting Lineup for Wednesday's Game vs Dodgers
- Watch San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
- San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/23/2026
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Los Angeles Dodgers a 69% chance to win (Home 69% · Away 31%). MLB · 2026-09-25 11:10 KST.
How was the 68.5% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 68.5%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.