Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees
TBRAwayTampa Bay Rays46%
@NYYHomeNew York Yankees54%
Model PickNew York Yankees 54%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
The model favors New York Yankees at 54% — a slight edge. The main drivers are Team ERA, Starting Pitcher Matchup, offset by Last 10 Games Form.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 54% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+1.4
Season Win%-0.7
Last 10 Games Form-3.7
Home/Away Split+0.3
Team OBP-2.5
Team SLG+0.4
Team ERA+4
Team WHIP-0.7
Starting Pitcher Matchup+2.8
Baseline 50% → final home win53.8%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York Yankees at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 59.4% (716 RS/582 RA) vs Away 55.9% (713/627) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 90-67 (.573) vs Away 96-61 (.611) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 5-5 vs Away 8-2 · Home L1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 43-33 · away team away 41-35 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .310 vs Away .327 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .408 vs Away .402 (OPS .718/.729) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.21 vs Away 3.67 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.16 vs Away 1.13 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Gerrit Cole (ERA 3.63) vs Away Ian Seymour (ERA 4.38) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .278 · K 1439 · BB 559 / Away BABIP .296 · K 1099 · BB 497 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 3.00 · HR9 1.02 / Away K/BB 3.29 · HR9 1.24 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Rays Clinch Division
The Tampa Bay Rays just clinched the AL East title by beating the Yankees in their last game. This could lead to a dip in motivation for the upcoming match.
Basis: LLM · news · Rays clinch AL East title after 6-1 win over Yanke
Qualitative · Yankees Secure Wild Card
The New York Yankees have already secured home-field advantage for the Wild Card Series. While they missed out on the division title, they can now focus on preparing for the postseason.
Basis: LLM · news · Yanks focused with Wild Card Series home-field cli
Qualitative · Crucial Series Context
This game is part of a crucial four-game series where the AL East title was on the line. Even though the division has been decided, the overall series momentum and rivalry could still impact the game.
Basis: LLM · news · Crucial 4 Game Series
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/22/2026
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: Game Highlights
- How to watch Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees: MLB live stream, TV channel
- Yankees vs. Rays preview, prediction: Everything to know about four-game series with AL East title on the line
- New York Yankees Host Tampa Bay Rays In Crucial 4 Game Series
- Rays clinch AL East title after 6-1 win over Yankees
- Rodón staves off Rays' clinch with 8 dominant frames in DH opener
- Rays vs Yankees Game 1 Prediction, Pick, MLB Odds for Tuesday, September 22
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Yankees a 54% chance to win (Home 54% · Away 46%). MLB · 2026-09-24 08:05 KST.
How was the 53.8% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 53.8%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.