St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
SLCAwaySt. Louis Cardinals30%
@PPHomePittsburgh Pirates70%
Model PickPittsburgh Pirates 70%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 4 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We recommend the Pittsburgh Pirates, who hold a 70% win probability, though the edge against the market is uncalculated. The primary drivers for this pick are the 'Starting Pitcher Matchup' and 'Last 10 Games Form'. However, since our model does not beat the market in the long run, potential variance in 'Team ERA' remains the key swing risk.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 70% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+1.4
Season Win%+0.5
Last 10 Games Form+2.5
Home/Away Split+0.5
Team OBP+2.5
Team SLG+1.8
Team ERA+1
Team WHIP+1.2
Starting Pitcher Matchup+6
Baseline 50% → final home win69.8%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Pittsburgh Pirates at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 51.9% (750 RS/719 RA) vs Away 48.4% (704/729) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 80-77 (.510) vs Away 76-81 (.484) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 6-4 vs Away 4-6 · Home W5 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 43-36 · away team away 38-38 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .331 vs Away .314 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .405 vs Away .380 (OPS .736/.694) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.16 vs Away 4.28 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.30 vs Away 1.35 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Lake Bachar (ERA 3.56) vs Away Matthew Liberatore (ERA 5.36) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .314 · K 1456 · BB 554 / Away BABIP .283 · K 1248 · BB 498 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.55 · HR9 0.96 / Away K/BB 2.27 · HR9 1.00 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Pirates' Hot Streak
The Pittsburgh Pirates are on a five-game winning streak, including a 2-0 victory over the Cardinals in their last outing, indicating high team morale.
Basis: LLM · news · Pirates top Cardinals 2-0 for 5th straight win
Qualitative · Cardinals' Road Woes
The St. Louis Cardinals are currently on a road losing streak and will be highly motivated to break it in this upcoming game.
Basis: LLM · news · Cardinals aim to end road skid
Qualitative · Pirates' Dominance Over Cardinals
The Pittsburgh Pirates secured a dominant 2-0 victory over the Cardinals in their last game, showcasing a strong head-to-head advantage.
Basis: LLM · news · Jones takes perfect game into the 6th, Pirates top
Qualitative · Pirates' 'Devastating Reality'
A headline mentioned the Pittsburgh Pirates facing a 'devastating reality,' which, while unspecified, could impact team morale or pressure levels.
Basis: LLM · news · Pittsburgh Pirates Face DEVASTATING Reality
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
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- St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Prediction, Picks & Odds for Sept. 22, 2026
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: Andre Pallante vs. Jared Jones
- Falling Short AGAIN Pittsburgh Pirates Face DEVASTATING Reality as St. Louis Cardinals Loom
- Jones takes perfect game into the 6th, Pirates top Cardinals 2-0 for 5th straight win
- Jones takes perfect game into the 6th, Pirates top Cardinals 2-0 for 5th straight win
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Pittsburgh Pirates a 70% chance to win (Home 70% · Away 30%). MLB · 2026-09-24 07:40 KST.
How was the 69.8% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 69.8%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.