San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
SDPAwaySan Diego Padres27%
@LADHomeLos Angeles Dodgers73%
Model PickLos Angeles Dodgers 73%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We project a 73% win probability for the Los Angeles Dodgers, favoring them based on metrics like 'Pythagorean Expectation' and 'Starting Pitcher Matchup'. However, a decline in 'Last 10 Games Form' presents a notable risk factor. As our model does not consistently beat the market long-term, please exercise caution.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 73% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+4.3
Season Win%+1.1
Last 10 Games Form-1.2
Home/Away Split+2
Team OBP+3
Team SLG+2
Team ERA+2.9
Team WHIP+3
Starting Pitcher Matchup+3.3
Baseline 50% → final home win73%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Los Angeles Dodgers at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 63.1% (787 RS/587 RA) vs Away 52.3% (690/656) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 97-60 (.618) vs Away 87-70 (.554) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 7-3 vs Away 8-2 · Home W5 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 51-28 · away team away 38-41 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .339 vs Away .318 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .426 vs Away .398 (OPS .765/.716) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.59 vs Away 3.96 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.15 vs Away 1.29 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Yoshinobu Yamamoto (ERA 2.51) vs Away Robbie Ray (ERA 3.60) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .297 · K 1223 · BB 611 / Away BABIP .286 · K 1267 · BB 538 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 3.09 · HR9 1.11 / Away K/BB 2.40 · HR9 1.14 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Padres Lineup Shuffle
The Padres announced a surprise designated hitter in their starting lineup for the series opener against the Dodgers, indicating a potential strategic shift in their offensive approach.
Basis: LLM · news · Padres Announce Starting Lineup for Series-Opener
Qualitative · Padres' Improved Form
The Padres are noted to be much-improved, raising questions about whether their enhanced form will be enough to beat the Dodgers. This could positively impact team morale and performance.
Basis: LLM · news · Much-improved, Padres will see if it’s enough to b
Qualitative · Dodgers' Dominant Win
The Dodgers secured a dominant 7-0 victory over the Padres in the previous game, scoring five two-out runs. This win likely boosts the Dodgers' confidence while potentially adding pressure on the Padres.
Basis: LLM · news · The Dodgers beat the Padres, 7-0, at Dodger Stadiu
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/22/2026
- San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: Game Highlights
- San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Live Stream: How to Watch MLB
- Padres Announce Starting Lineup for Series-Opener vs Dodgers With Surprise Designated Hitter
- TST Images: The Dodgers beat the Padres, 7-0, at Dodger Stadium
- Dodgers score 5 two-out runs off Padres starter Michael King in 7-0 victory
- Watch San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Los Angeles Dodgers a 73% chance to win (Home 73% · Away 27%). MLB · 2026-09-24 11:10 KST.
How was the 73% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 73%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.