Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox
CGAwayCleveland Guardians43%
@BRSHomeBoston Red Sox57%
Model PickBoston Red Sox 57%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We favor the Boston Red Sox, driven primarily by their Starting Pitcher Matchup and Home Advantage. However, the Last 10 Games Form remains a significant swing risk, and our model does not consistently outperform the market over the long term.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 57% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+2.2
Season Win%+0.2
Last 10 Games Form-5
Home/Away Split-0.5
Team OBP+0.6
Team SLG+1.8
Team ERA+1.6
Team WHIP+0.5
Starting Pitcher Matchup+3.1
Baseline 50% → final home win57%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Boston Red Sox at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 55.6% (680 RS/601 RA) vs Away 50.2% (652/649) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 84-73 (.535) vs Away 82-75 (.522) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 4-6 vs Away 8-2 · Home L3 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 38-38 · away team away 41-35 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .320 vs Away .316 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .401 vs Away .377 (OPS .721/.693) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.59 vs Away 3.77 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.24 vs Away 1.26 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Sonny Gray (ERA 2.82) vs Away Foster Griffin (ERA 3.67) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .293 · K 1283 · BB 501 / Away BABIP .282 · K 1242 · BB 552 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.98 · HR9 0.97 / Away K/BB 2.88 · HR9 1.10 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Red Sox Losing Streak Pressure
The Boston Red Sox lost their last game after giving up a lead in the ninth inning, extending their losing streak to three. There will be significant pressure to snap this skid in front of their home crowd.
Basis: LLM · news · Red Sox lose third straight
Qualitative · Guardians Magic Number Shrinks
The Cleveland Guardians reduced their magic number with a win in their last game. This can boost team morale and provide strong motivation as they push for a postseason berth.
Basis: LLM · news · Cleveland lowers magic number in thriller
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/22/2026
- How to watch Guardians vs. Red Sox: TV channel and streaming options for September 22
- Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction, Pick, MLB Odds for Tuesday, September 22
- Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 22, 2026)
- How to watch Cleveland Guardians-Boston Red Sox MLB game for free today
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox: Game Highlight
- Erik Miller gives up lead in ninth as Red Sox lose third straight
- Guardians score vs. Red Sox. Cleveland lowers magic number in thriller
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Boston Red Sox a 57% chance to win (Home 57% · Away 43%). MLB · 2026-09-24 08:10 KST.
How was the 57% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 57%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.