Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies
SMAwaySeattle Mariners69%
@CRHomeColorado Rockies31%
Model PickSeattle Mariners 69%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 4 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We project a Seattle Mariners victory with a 69% probability, though the edge against the market is uncalculated. The primary drivers supporting Seattle are '팀 장타율(SLG)' and '홈 어드밴티지 / Home Advantage', which provide crucial positive margins. However, a significant deficit in '팀 평균자책(ERA)' remains the primary swing risk, and we transparently acknowledge that our model does not beat the market over the long term.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 31% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-2.3
Season Win%-1.7
Last 10 Games Form-3.7
Home/Away Split+0.2
Team OBP+1.8
Team SLG+2.6
Team ERA-11.9
Team WHIP-6.1
Starting Pitcher Matchup-0.5
Baseline 50% → final home win30.8%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Colorado Rockies at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 40.2% (726 RS/902 RA) vs Away 46.1% (632/689) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 57-98 (.368) vs Away 72-83 (.465) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 2-8 vs Away 5-5 · Home W1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 32-45 · away team away 32-48 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .324 vs Away .312 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .417 vs Away .382 (OPS .741/.694) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 5.60 vs Away 4.21 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.53 vs Away 1.26 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Tomoyuki Sugano (ERA 5.49) vs Away Kade Anderson (ERA 5.33) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .309 · K 1347 · BB 487 / Away BABIP .278 · K 1346 · BB 523 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.07 · HR9 1.42 / Away K/BB 3.19 · HR9 1.23 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Mariners on Brink of Elimination
The Mariners are on the verge of playoff elimination after a recent 5-3 loss to the Rockies. This game is crucial for their postseason hopes.
Basis: LLM · news · Seattle Mariners on verge of playoff elimination a
Qualitative · Rockies' Recent Win Momentum
The Rockies secured a 5-3 victory against the Mariners in their last outing. This win could boost team morale and carry positive momentum into the next game.
Basis: LLM · news · Seattle Mariners on verge of playoff elimination a
Qualitative · Mariners' Close Game Resilience
The Mariners previously defeated the Rockies in a tight 5-4 contest. This experience could instill confidence in the team's ability to win close games.
Basis: LLM · news · Seattle Mariners defeat Colorado Rockies, 5-4
Qualitative · Rockies' Missed Opportunities
Despite creating numerous scoring chances against the Mariners, the Rockies ultimately lost 5-4. This could put pressure on their ability to capitalize on opportunities in the upcoming game.
Basis: LLM · news · Rockies create plenty of chances, but Mariners esc
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/18/2026
- Colorado Rockies vs. Seattle Mariners: Game preview, picks and player props for Saturday
- How to watch Mariners vs. Rockies: TV channel and streaming options for September 18
- Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 19, 2026)
- Photos: Seattle Mariners take on Colorado Rockies
- Colorado Rockies vs. Seattle Mariners game discussion: José Quintana vs. Bryce Miller
- Highs and Lows: Mariners at Rockies Series Preview
- Photos: Seattle Mariners defeat Colorado Rockies, 5-4
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Seattle Mariners a 69% chance to win (Home 31% · Away 69%). MLB · 2026-09-21 04:10 KST.
How was the 30.8% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 30.8%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.