San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
SFGAwaySan Francisco Giants18%
@LADHomeLos Angeles Dodgers82%
Model PickLos Angeles Dodgers 82%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We recommend backing the Los Angeles Dodgers, who hold a strong 82% win probability, though the edge against the market is uncalculated. The primary drivers for this pick are 'Pythagorean Expectation' and 'Team ERA', which highlight a substantial gap in overall team quality. However, a narrow margin in 'Team SLG' remains the key swing risk that could disrupt the outcome, and we transparently acknowledge that our model does not beat the market over the long term.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 82% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+7.1
Season Win%+3.3
Last 10 Games Form+3.4
Home/Away Split+3.1
Team OBP+3.7
Team SLG+1
Team ERA+4.8
Team WHIP+3.3
Baseline 50% → final home win82.2%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Los Angeles Dodgers at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 62.6% (777 RS/586 RA) vs Away 44.6% (655/737) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 95-60 (.613) vs Away 64-91 (.413) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 7-3 vs Away 4-6 · Home W3 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 49-28 · away team away 28-52 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .339 vs Away .309 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .425 vs Away .407 (OPS .764/.716) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.63 vs Away 4.39 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.16 vs Away 1.37 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home TBD (ERA ?) vs Away Matt Wilkinson (ERA 4.58) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .296 · K 1208 · BB 607 / Away BABIP .291 · K 1258 · BB 434 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 3.07 · HR9 1.12 / Away K/BB 1.98 · HR9 0.99 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Pitching Matchup
The Giants are starting Matt Wilkinson, but the Dodgers' starting pitcher is still TBD, which could introduce an element of uncertainty for the Dodgers' game plan.
Basis: LLM · news · Pitching Matchups
Qualitative · Key Injuries
The presence of key injuries for both the Dodgers and Giants could significantly impact the outcome of the game.
Basis: LLM · news · Key Injuries
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
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Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Los Angeles Dodgers a 82% chance to win (Home 82% · Away 18%). MLB · 2026-09-21 05:10 KST.
How was the 82.2% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 82.2%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.