Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
PPAwayPhiladelphia Phillies56%
@NYMHomeNew York Mets44%
Model PickPhiladelphia Phillies 56%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 1 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects the Philadelphia Phillies with a 56% win probability against the New York Mets, recommending the Phillies. While the Phillies hold an edge in 'Starting Pitcher Matchup' with a -1.9% delta, the 'Home Advantage' factor favors the Mets by 2.5%. The market edge for this game is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 44% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-1.6
Season Win%-1.6
Home/Away Split-1.2
Team OBP-0.3
Team SLG-0.3
Team ERA-1.1
Team WHIP-0.2
Starting Pitcher Matchup-1.9
Baseline 50% → final home win44.2%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York Mets at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 47.6% (666 RS/702 RA) vs Away 51.6% (690/666) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 71-84 (.458) vs Away 85-70 (.548) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 4-6 vs Away 4-6 · Home W2 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 36-44 · away team away 44-36 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .310 vs Away .312 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .394 vs Away .398 (OPS .704/.710) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.15 vs Away 4.02 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.30 vs Away 1.29 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Jonah Tong (ERA 3.43) vs Away Cristopher Sánchez (ERA 2.93) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .280 · K 1306 · BB 504 / Away BABIP .283 · K 1274 · BB 497 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.63 · HR9 1.17 / Away K/BB 3.21 · HR9 1.20 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 1 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Key First Baseman Injured
Mets' starting first baseman Jared Young was carted off the field after colliding with Nolan McLean during a game against the Phillies, making his availability for this game uncertain.
Basis: LLM · news · Jared Young carted off field
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/18/2026
- Mets first baseman Jared Young carted off field after colliding with Nolan McLean during game against Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/19/2026
- Phillies vs Mets Prediction, Pick, MLB Odds for Friday, September 18
- Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Live Stream: How to Watch MLB
- How to watch Phillies vs. Mets: TV channel and streaming options for September 18
- Mets 6-3 Phillies (Sep 18, 2026) Game Recap
- Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/17/2026
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Philadelphia Phillies a 56% chance to win (Home 44% · Away 56%). MLB · 2026-09-21 02:10 KST.
How was the 44.2% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 44.2%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.