New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks
NYYAwayNew York Yankees74%
@ADHomeArizona Diamondbacks26%
Model PickNew York Yankees 74%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 1 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We project a New York Yankees victory with a 74% model probability, though the edge against the market is uncalculated. The primary support for this pick comes from the '홈 어드밴티지 / Home Advantage' factor, but significant negative indicators like '팀 평균자책(ERA) / Team ERA' and '선발 매치업 / Starting Pitcher Matchup' present major swing risks. Given that our model does not beat the market over the long term, these opposing metrics warrant cautious interpretation.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 26% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-4.1
Season Win%-1
Last 10 Games Form-3.7
Home/Away Split-0.5
Team OBP+0.4
Team SLG-0.9
Team ERA-7.7
Team WHIP-2.7
Starting Pitcher Matchup-6.1
Baseline 50% → final home win26.2%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Arizona Diamondbacks at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 49.7% (685 RS/690 RA) vs Away 60.0% (709/568) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 81-74 (.523) vs Away 89-65 (.578) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 4-6 vs Away 7-3 · Home W1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 44-36 · away team away 47-33 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .315 vs Away .312 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .397 vs Away .409 (OPS .712/.721) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.11 vs Away 3.18 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.28 vs Away 1.16 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Corbin Burnes (ERA 5.87) vs Away Will Warren (ERA 3.89) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .281 · K 1149 · BB 515 / Away BABIP .280 · K 1407 · BB 552 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.34 · HR9 1.14 / Away K/BB 3.00 · HR9 1.03 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 1 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · D-backs on Brink of Elimination
The Arizona Diamondbacks are on the verge of playoff elimination after a crushing defeat to the New York Yankees, which could significantly impact team morale and performance.
Basis: LLM · news · Diamondbacks failing to stave off elimination, get
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/18/2026
- New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 19, 2026)
- Diamondbacks failing to stave off elimination, get crushed by Yankees
- New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: Game Highlights
- New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks: Cam Schlittler vs. Brandon Pfaadt
- New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/19/2026
- How to watch Yankees vs. Diamondbacks: TV channel and streaming options for September 19
- See Arizona Diamondbacks' 3-game series vs New York Yankees in photos
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Yankees a 74% chance to win (Home 26% · Away 74%). MLB · 2026-09-21 05:10 KST.
How was the 26.2% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 26.2%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.