San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
SFGAwaySan Francisco Giants19%
@LADHomeLos Angeles Dodgers81%
Model PickLos Angeles Dodgers 81%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We project a victory for the Los Angeles Dodgers with an 81% model probability, though the edge against the market is uncalculated. This prediction is heavily backed by 'Pythagorean Expectation (deltaPct 6.9)' and 'Team ERA (deltaPct 4.8)', showcasing their superior efficiency. However, the narrow margin in 'Team SLG (deltaPct 1)' remains a key swing risk, and we acknowledge that our model does not beat the market over the long term.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 81% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+6.9
Season Win%+3.2
Last 10 Games Form+2.3
Home/Away Split+3.1
Team OBP+3.7
Team SLG+1
Team ERA+4.8
Team WHIP+3.3
Baseline 50% → final home win80.8%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Los Angeles Dodgers at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 62.4% (767 RS/582 RA) vs Away 45.0% (651/727) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 94-60 (.610) vs Away 64-90 (.416) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 7-3 vs Away 5-5 · Home W2 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 48-28 · away team away 28-51 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .338 vs Away .309 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .424 vs Away .407 (OPS .762/.716) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.63 vs Away 4.37 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.16 vs Away 1.36 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Tarik Skubal (ERA 2.70) vs Away TBD (ERA ?) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .295 · K 1204 · BB 602 / Away BABIP .291 · K 1247 · BB 431 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 3.06 · HR9 1.12 / Away K/BB 1.99 · HR9 0.99 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Dodgers' Batting Surge
The Dodgers' offense exploded in their last game against the Giants, hitting 5 home runs, including two from Mookie Betts, en route to an 8-2 rout. Notably, they blasted 4 homers in the 8th inning alone.
Basis: LLM · news · Mookie Betts belts 2 of Dodgers' 5 homers in rout
Qualitative · Dodgers Playoff Prep
The Dodgers are actively managing player health as they gear up for the playoffs, which could impact their lineup rotations or playing time for key starters.
Basis: LLM · news · Dodgers surge late to beat Giants as they work to
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- How to watch San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
- San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/18/2026
- Dodgers vs Giants Series Preview: Pitching Matchups, Key Injuries, How to Watch
- San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 18, 2026)
- How to watch Giants vs. Dodgers: TV channel and streaming options for September 18
- Here’s where to watch Giants vs. Dodgers for free tonight: Time, livestream
- Dodgers 8-2 Giants (Sep 18, 2026) Game Recap
- Mookie Betts belts 2 of Dodgers' 5 homers in rout of Giants
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Los Angeles Dodgers a 81% chance to win (Home 81% · Away 19%). MLB · 2026-09-20 10:10 KST.
How was the 80.8% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 80.8%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.