New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks
NYYAwayNew York Yankees75%
@ADHomeArizona Diamondbacks25%
Model PickNew York Yankees 75%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 1 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects a 75% win probability for the New York Yankees, making them the recommended pick, though the edge against the market remains uncalculated. The primary supporting driver for this matchup is '홈 어드밴티지 / Home Advantage', while the main swing risks stem from significant negative deltas in '팀 평균자책(ERA) / Team ERA' and '선발 매치업 / Starting Pitcher Matchup'. Please note that our model does not consistently beat the market in the long run, warranting a cautious betting approach.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 25% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-4.3
Season Win%-1.1
Last 10 Games Form-4.9
Home/Away Split-0.6
Team OBP+0.4
Team SLG-0.9
Team ERA-7.6
Team WHIP-2.6
Starting Pitcher Matchup-5.5
Baseline 50% → final home win25.4%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Arizona Diamondbacks at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 49.5% (680 RS/687 RA) vs Away 60.2% (706/563) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 80-74 (.519) vs Away 89-64 (.582) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 4-6 vs Away 8-2 · Home L3 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 43-36 · away team away 47-32 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .315 vs Away .312 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .397 vs Away .409 (OPS .712/.721) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.11 vs Away 3.18 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.28 vs Away 1.16 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Brandon Pfaadt (ERA 3.77) vs Away Cam Schlittler (ERA 1.95) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .281 · K 1139 · BB 511 / Away BABIP .280 · K 1401 · BB 549 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.34 · HR9 1.13 / Away K/BB 3.00 · HR9 1.03 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 1 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · D-backs on the Brink
The Arizona Diamondbacks suffered a crushing defeat to the New York Yankees, putting them on the verge of playoff elimination. This could significantly impact team morale and performance.
Basis: LLM · news · Diamondbacks failing to stave off elimination, get
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/18/2026
- New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks: Gerrit Cole vs. Eduardo Rodriguez
- How to watch Yankees vs. Diamondbacks: TV channel and streaming options for September 18
- Series Preview #50: NY Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
- Yankees 9-2 Diamondbacks (19 Sep, 2026) Game Stats
- New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 19, 2026)
- How to Watch Diamondbacks vs Yankees Game 1: Cole vs Rodriguez
- Diamondbacks failing to stave off elimination, get crushed by Yankees
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Yankees a 75% chance to win (Home 25% · Away 75%). MLB · 2026-09-20 09:10 KST.
How was the 25.4% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 25.4%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.