Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres
MMAwayMiami Marlins36%
@SDPHomeSan Diego Padres64%
Model PickSan Diego Padres 64%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We project a San Diego Padres victory with a 64% probability, though the edge against the market is not calculated. The primary drivers supporting this pick are '최근 10경기 폼 / Last 10 Games Form' along with '홈 어드밴티지 / Home Advantage' and '홈/원정 스플릿 / Home/Away Split'. However, a negative margin in '팀 출루율(OBP) / Team OBP' remains the key swing risk that could disrupt this projection.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 64% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+0.9
Season Win%+1
Last 10 Games Form+6.1
Home/Away Split+2.5
Team OBP-1.1
Team SLG-0.2
Team ERA+1.6
Starting Pitcher Matchup+1
Baseline 50% → final home win64.3%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | San Diego Padres at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 52.5% (676 RS/640 RA) vs Away 50.1% (683/681) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 85-69 (.552) vs Away 76-78 (.494) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 9-1 vs Away 4-6 · Home W3 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 47-29 · away team away 31-45 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .318 vs Away .326 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .398 vs Away .401 (OPS .716/.727) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.93 vs Away 4.12 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.29 vs Away 1.29 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Casey Mize (ERA 3.69) vs Away Eury Pérez (ERA 3.99) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .285 · K 1240 · BB 530 / Away BABIP .299 · K 1276 · BB 525 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.42 · HR9 1.13 / Away K/BB 2.33 · HR9 1.08 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Padres Wild Card Race
The Padres are tied for the top NL wild-card spot after their win yesterday, indicating extremely high motivation for a crucial victory in this game.
Basis: LLM · news · into tie for top NL wild-card spot
Qualitative · Marlins Streak Stopped
The Padres decisively ended the Marlins' streak with an 8-2 win yesterday, potentially giving them a psychological edge and momentum for this game.
Basis: LLM · news · Padres 8-2 win over Marlins
Qualitative · Marlins' Batting Slump
The Marlins' offense struggled yesterday, scoring only 2 runs, which could carry over and impact their performance in this upcoming game.
Basis: LLM · news · Padres to 8-2 win over Marlins
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/18/2026
- Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 18, 2026)
- How to watch Marlins vs. Padres: TV channel and streaming options for September 18
- Ty France's 3-run homer helps Padres to 8-2 win over Marlins and into tie for top NL wild-card spot
- Padres 8-2 Marlins (19 Sep, 2026) Final Score
- Ty France's 3-run homer helps Padres to 8-2 win over Marlins and into tie for top NL wild-card spot
- Padres Announce Starting Pitchers for Critical Series vs Streaking Marlins
- Marlins vs. Padres (19 Sep, 2026) Live Score
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives San Diego Padres a 64% chance to win (Home 64% · Away 36%). MLB · 2026-09-20 09:40 KST.
How was the 64.3% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 64.3%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.