Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies
SMAwaySeattle Mariners70%
@CRHomeColorado Rockies30%
Model PickSeattle Mariners 70%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects the Seattle Mariners as the pick with a 70% win probability. The primary drivers supporting this selection are '팀 평균자책(ERA)' and '팀 WHIP', which highlight Seattle's pitching advantage, while '최근 10경기 폼' and '피타고리안 기대승률' act as the main swing risks. The edge against the market is uncalculated, and we honestly acknowledge that our model does not beat the market over the long term.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 30% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-2.4
Season Win%-1.7
Last 10 Games Form-5
Home/Away Split+0.2
Team OBP+1.8
Team SLG+2.8
Team ERA-12
Team WHIP-6.2
Baseline 50% → final home win30%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Colorado Rockies at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 40.0% (717 RS/894 RA) vs Away 46.1% (624/680) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 56-97 (.366) vs Away 71-82 (.464) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 1-9 vs Away 5-5 · Home L2 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 31-44 · away team away 31-47 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .324 vs Away .312 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .417 vs Away .380 (OPS .741/.692) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 5.62 vs Away 4.21 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.54 vs Away 1.26 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home TBD (ERA ?) vs Away Bryan Woo (ERA 3.88) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .307 · K 1330 · BB 482 / Away BABIP .278 · K 1329 · BB 519 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.05 · HR9 1.41 / Away K/BB 3.19 · HR9 1.24 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Playoff Hope
The Seattle Mariners still have slim playoff hopes, which could provide significant motivation for their performance in this late-season game.
Basis: LLM · news · Mariners slim playoffs hopes aren't dashed yet
Qualitative · Uncomfortable Offseason Looming
The Seattle Mariners are reportedly moving closer to an offseason full of uncomfortable questions, which could either add pressure or motivate players to perform well now.
Basis: LLM · news · Moving Closer to an Offseason Full of Uncomfortabl
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 18, 2026)
- Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies Preview - 09/18/2026
- Rockies face Mariners at Coors Field: Watch Friday on KTVD
- Mariners vs. Rockies (19 Sep, 2026) Live Score
- Mariners News: Felnin Celesten, Ethan Salas, and Justin Turner
- Colorado Rockies vs. Seattle Mariners Series Sept. 18-20: Odds, Starting Pitchers & Predictions
- How to Watch Mariners vs. Rockies: Streaming & TV on Sept. 18
- Why every MLB non-playoff team should still have hope
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Seattle Mariners a 70% chance to win (Home 30% · Away 70%). MLB · 2026-09-19 09:10 KST.
How was the 30% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 30%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.