San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
SFGAwaySan Francisco Giants20%
@LADHomeLos Angeles Dodgers80%
Model PickLos Angeles Dodgers 80%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We project a victory for the Los Angeles Dodgers with an 80% model probability, though the edge against the market is uncalculated. The primary drivers for this pick are 'Pythagorean Expectation (deltaPct 6.6)' and 'Team ERA (deltaPct 4.7)', which highlight the Dodgers' superior efficiency. However, a narrow margin in the 'Starting Pitcher Matchup (deltaPct 0.4)' remains the key swing risk, and bettors should note that our model does not beat the market over the long term.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 80% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+6.6
Season Win%+3.2
Last 10 Games Form+2.3
Home/Away Split+3
Team OBP+3.6
Team SLG+0.8
Team ERA+4.7
Team WHIP+3.4
Starting Pitcher Matchup+0.4
Baseline 50% → final home win80.4%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Los Angeles Dodgers at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 62.1% (759 RS/580 RA) vs Away 45.3% (649/719) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 93-60 (.608) vs Away 64-89 (.418) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 7-3 vs Away 5-5 · Home W1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 47-28 · away team away 28-50 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .338 vs Away .310 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .421 vs Away .408 (OPS .759/.718) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.64 vs Away 4.34 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.16 vs Away 1.36 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Tyler Glasnow (ERA 3.50) vs Away Cesar Perdomo (ERA 3.68) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .295 · K 1198 · BB 597 / Away BABIP .291 · K 1233 · BB 429 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 3.05 · HR9 1.12 / Away K/BB 2.00 · HR9 0.96 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Key Hitter Out for Season
Giants first baseman Rafael Devers is out for the season due to core surgery, leaving a significant void in the team's lineup.
Basis: LLM · news · Rafael Devers (core) to undergo season-ending surg
Qualitative · Ohtani's Limited Play
Reports suggest Shohei Ohtani might see limited action in the Giants-Dodgers series late in the season, potentially impacting the Dodgers' offensive output.
Basis: LLM · news · There may not be much Ohtani to see
Qualitative · Rivalry Motivation
The Giants-Dodgers matchup is a classic rivalry, often leading to heightened player motivation regardless of standings.
Basis: LLM · news · Giants vs. Dodgers
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers Preview - 09/18/2026
- San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 18, 2026)
- Giants vs. Dodgers (Sep 18, 2026) Pregame
- Dodgers on Deck: Friday, September 18 vs. Giants
- Apple to Use 14 iPhone 18 Pro Cameras for Dodgers-Giants Broadcast
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants - September 18, 2026
- How to Watch Giants vs. Dodgers: Streaming & TV on Sept. 18
- There may not be much Ohtani to see when Giants face the Dodgers in final weeks
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Los Angeles Dodgers a 80% chance to win (Home 80% · Away 20%). MLB · 2026-09-19 11:15 KST.
How was the 80.4% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 80.4%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.