Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
PPAwayPhiladelphia Phillies57%
@NYMHomeNew York Mets43%
Model PickPhiladelphia Phillies 57%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 1 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We recommend the Philadelphia Phillies with a 57% win probability, though the edge against the market is not calculated. While the New York Mets hold an edge in 'Home Advantage', the Phillies are expected to overcome this through their overall superior metrics. A key swing risk to monitor is the Mets' lineup adjustment following first baseman Jared Young being carted off the field after a collision with Nolan McLean in their previous game.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 43% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-2.2
Season Win%-1.8
Last 10 Games Form-1.2
Home/Away Split-1.6
Team OBP-0.6
Team SLG-0.4
Team ERA-1.7
Team WHIP-0.5
Baseline 50% → final home win42.5%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York Mets at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 46.9% (650 RS/696 RA) vs Away 52.3% (684/650) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 69-84 (.451) vs Away 85-68 (.556) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 4-6 vs Away 5-5 · Home L5 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 34-44 · away team away 44-34 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .308 vs Away .312 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .393 vs Away .398 (OPS .701/.710) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.16 vs Away 3.96 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.30 vs Away 1.28 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Zac Thornton (ERA 3.44) vs Away TBD (ERA ?) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .278 · K 1288 · BB 495 / Away BABIP .284 · K 1256 · BB 492 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.62 · HR9 1.17 / Away K/BB 3.23 · HR9 1.19 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 1 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Key 1B Injury
Mets' starting first baseman Jared Young was carted off the field after colliding with a teammate during the game against the Phillies, making his availability for the next game uncertain.
Basis: LLM · news · Mets first baseman Jared Young carted off field af
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/17/2026
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: Game Highlights
- How to Watch Phillies vs. Mets: TV Channel, Live Stream, Time
- Mets first baseman Jared Young carted off field after colliding with Nolan McLean during game against Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets: Odds, Spread, and Total
- Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 18, 2026)
- What channel are the Phillies on tonight? What channel are the Mets on?
- How to watch Phillies vs. Mets game free live stream tonight
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Philadelphia Phillies a 57% chance to win (Home 43% · Away 57%). MLB · 2026-09-19 08:15 KST.
How was the 42.5% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 42.5%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.