New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks
NYYAwayNew York Yankees62%
@ADHomeArizona Diamondbacks38%
Model PickNew York Yankees 62%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 1 qualitative · 1 folklore
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We recommend the New York Yankees, who hold a 62% win probability for this matchup. The primary driver supporting this pick is the advantage in '선발 매치업 / Starting Pitcher Matchup', while the significant deficit in '팀 평균자책(ERA) / Team ERA' remains the critical swing risk. Please note that our model does not beat the market in the long run, and the edge against the market is uncalculated for this specific game.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 38% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-3.9
Season Win%-1
Last 10 Games Form-2.5
Home/Away Split-0.5
Team OBP+0.6
Team SLG-0.9
Team ERA-7.6
Team WHIP-2.7
Starting Pitcher Matchup+3.6
Baseline 50% → final home win37.6%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Arizona Diamondbacks at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 50.0% (678 RS/678 RA) vs Away 59.8% (697/561) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 80-73 (.523) vs Away 88-64 (.579) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 5-5 vs Away 7-3 · Home L2 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 43-35 · away team away 46-32 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .316 vs Away .312 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .397 vs Away .409 (OPS .713/.721) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.09 vs Away 3.19 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.28 vs Away 1.16 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Eduardo Rodriguez (ERA 2.62) vs Away Gerrit Cole (ERA 3.67) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .281 · K 1128 · BB 510 / Away BABIP .281 · K 1394 · BB 543 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.35 · HR9 1.13 / Away K/BB 2.98 · HR9 1.03 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · D-backs Playoff Desperation
With only nine games left in the season, the Diamondbacks' wild-card hopes are dwindling, making this home series against the Yankees critical for their playoff aspirations.
Basis: LLM · news · Diamondbacks’ playoff hopes reach despair with 9 g
Folklore · 2001 WS Rematch Narrative
This matchup between the Yankees and Diamondbacks evokes memories of the 2001 World Series, where the D-backs famously defeated the Yankees, adding a symbolic layer to this 25-year anniversary rematch.
Basis: LLM · news · Diamondbacks host Yankees 25 years after World Ser
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks Preview - 09/18/2026
- New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 18, 2026)
- The Yankees could taste the 2001 title. Then the Diamondbacks got a World Series-altering tip
- Diamondbacks Stare Down Dangerous Yankees as Playoff Hopes Dwindle
- Diamondbacks host the Yankees in first of 3-game series
- Diamondbacks host Yankees 25 years after World Series win
- KPNX-TV Events - Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Yankees
- New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks 9/18/26 - Stream the Game Live
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Yankees a 62% chance to win (Home 38% · Away 62%). MLB · 2026-09-19 10:40 KST.
How was the 37.6% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 37.6%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.