San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
SDPAwaySan Diego Padres85%
@CRHomeColorado Rockies15%
Model PickSan Diego Padres 85%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 1 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects an 85% win probability for the San Diego Padres, indicating a strong advantage over the Colorado Rockies. This forecast is primarily driven by the Padres' superior 'Team ERA' and 'Last 10 Games Form,' though 'Home Advantage' offers a slight edge to the Rockies. The market edge is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 15% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-4.5
Season Win%-3.1
Last 10 Games Form-9.6
Home/Away Split-0.7
Team OBP+1
Team SLG+1.7
Team ERA-12.1
Team WHIP-4.2
Starting Pitcher Matchup-5.6
Baseline 50% → final home win15.3%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Colorado Rockies at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 40.4% (715 RS/885 RA) vs Away 51.6% (659/636) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 56-96 (.368) vs Away 83-69 (.546) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 1-9 vs Away 9-1 · Home L1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 31-43 · away team away 37-40 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .324 vs Away .317 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .418 vs Away .394 (OPS .742/.711) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 5.59 vs Away 3.96 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.53 vs Away 1.29 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Tanner Gordon (ERA 5.55) vs Away Michael King (ERA 3.03) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .307 · K 1321 · BB 479 / Away BABIP .283 · K 1221 · BB 523 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.04 · HR9 1.42 / Away K/BB 2.40 · HR9 1.14 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 1 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Rockies' Losing Streak
The Rockies are on a losing streak, having just suffered a heartbreaking 8-7 loss to the Padres, which will fuel their motivation to snap the skid in this game.
Basis: LLM · news · Rockies’ late rally thwarted by Padres in 8-7 hear
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/14/2026
- San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies game discussion: Walker Buehler vs. Kyle Freeland
- San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 15, 2026)
- San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
- Rockies 9-3 Padres (Sep 15, 2026) Game Recap
- San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/15/2026
- San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 17, 2026)
- Rockies’ late rally thwarted by Padres in 8-7 heartbreaker
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives San Diego Padres a 85% chance to win (Home 15% · Away 85%). MLB · 2026-09-18 04:10 KST.
How was the 15.3% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 15.3%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.