Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
PPAwayPhiladelphia Phillies49%
@NYMHomeNew York Mets51%
Model PickNew York Mets 51%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 1 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We project a New York Mets victory (51% probability), though the edge against the market is not calculated. The primary drivers for this pick are the '선발 매치업 / Starting Pitcher Matchup (deltaPct 5.4)' and '홈 어드밴티지 / Home Advantage (deltaPct 2.5)'. However, the main swing risk lies in the Mets' deficit in '피타고리안 기대승률 / Pythagorean Expectation (deltaPct -2)', and we transparently acknowledge that our model does not beat the market in the long run.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 51% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-2
Season Win%-1.7
Last 10 Games Form+1.2
Home/Away Split-1.5
Team OBP-0.6
Team SLG-0.4
Team ERA-1.7
Team WHIP-0.5
Starting Pitcher Matchup+5.4
Baseline 50% → final home win50.8%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York Mets at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 47.1% (650 RS/693 RA) vs Away 52.1% (681/650) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 69-83 (.454) vs Away 84-68 (.553) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 5-5 vs Away 4-6 · Home L4 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 34-43 · away team away 43-34 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .308 vs Away .312 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .394 vs Away .399 (OPS .702/.711) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.18 vs Away 3.99 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.30 vs Away 1.28 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Nolan McLean (ERA 3.24) vs Away Aaron Nola (ERA 4.69) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .279 · K 1280 · BB 490 / Away BABIP .283 · K 1250 · BB 487 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.64 · HR9 1.18 / Away K/BB 3.25 · HR9 1.20 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 1 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Former Phillie Joins Mets
A 25-year-old infielder, formerly with the Philadelphia Phillies organization, has joined the New York Mets and could face his old team.
Basis: LLM · news · Former Phillies player joins division rival New Yo
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets Preview - 09/17/2026
- Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 17, 2026)
- Watch MLB - Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets - 09/17/2026
- What channel are the Phillies on tonight? What channel are the Mets on?
- Former Phillies player joins division rival New York Mets on Tuesday
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies - September 17, 2026
- New York Mets Suddenly Add 25-Year-Old Infielder From Phillies Organization
- Phillies vs Mets match player stats | 2026 Thursday, September 17th
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Mets a 51% chance to win (Home 51% · Away 49%). MLB · 2026-09-18 08:15 KST.
How was the 50.8% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 50.8%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.