San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals
SFGAwaySan Francisco Giants45%
@SLCHomeSt. Louis Cardinals55%
Model PickSt. Louis Cardinals 55%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
The St. Louis Cardinals hold a 55% win probability over the San Francisco Giants. This advantage is primarily driven by their 'Home Advantage' and 'Home/Away Split,' with 'Pythagorean Expectation' and 'Season Win%' also contributing positively. However, the Giants' superior 'Team SLG' and 'Starting Pitcher Matchup' present a key swing risk that could alter the game's outcome. The market edge for this pick is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 55% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+1.6
Season Win%+1.4
Last 10 Games Form-1.2
Home/Away Split+1.6
Team OBP+1
Team SLG-1.7
Team ERA+0.6
Team WHIP+0.2
Starting Pitcher Matchup-1.1
Baseline 50% → final home win54.9%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | St. Louis Cardinals at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 49.1% (688 RS/701 RA) vs Away 45.2% (643/714) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 75-77 (.493) vs Away 63-89 (.414) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 4-6 vs Away 5-5 · Home L1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 37-40 · away team away 27-50 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .316 vs Away .309 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .384 vs Away .407 (OPS .700/.716) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.29 vs Away 4.36 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.35 vs Away 1.36 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Matthew Liberatore (ERA 5.53) vs Away Anthony Molina (ERA 5.24) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .284 · K 1194 · BB 484 / Away BABIP .290 · K 1228 · BB 425 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.29 · HR9 1.00 / Away K/BB 2.01 · HR9 0.97 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Giants Offense Stifled
The Giants' offense is struggling to find its rhythm after being completely shut down by the Cardinals' pitching in their recent matchup.
Basis: LLM · news · Quinn Mathews stifles Giants' offense
Qualitative · Series Rubber Match
Both teams face off in a crucial series rubber match to determine who takes the series victory.
Basis: LLM · news · Cardinals play the Giants in series rubber match
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/15/2026
- How to watch San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals
- Giants vs. Cardinals (Sep 15, 2026) Pregame
- What we learned as Quinn Mathews stifles Giants' offense in loss to Cardinals
- Series Preview: St. Louis Cardinals Hosting San Francisco Giants
- San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 15, 2026)
- Cardinals play the Giants in series rubber match
- San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/14/2026
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives St. Louis Cardinals a 55% chance to win (Home 55% · Away 45%). MLB · 2026-09-17 02:15 KST.
How was the 54.9% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 54.9%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.