San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals
SFGAwaySan Francisco Giants35%
@SLCHomeSt. Louis Cardinals65%
Model PickSt. Louis Cardinals 65%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We project a St. Louis Cardinals victory with a 65% probability, heavily backed by 'Starting Pitcher Matchup' and 'Home Advantage'. However, 'Team SLG' presents a negative margin as the primary swing risk, while the edge against the market is uncalculated. Please note that our model does not beat the market in the long run, so these metrics should be approached with caution.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 65% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+1.9
Season Win%+1.5
Last 10 Games Form+1.2
Home/Away Split+1.8
Team OBP+1.3
Team SLG-1.6
Team ERA+0.8
Team WHIP+0.2
Starting Pitcher Matchup+4.8
Baseline 50% → final home win64.6%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | St. Louis Cardinals at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 49.6% (685 RS/691 RA) vs Away 44.7% (633/711) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 75-76 (.497) vs Away 62-89 (.411) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 5-5 vs Away 4-6 · Home W2 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 37-39 · away team away 26-50 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .317 vs Away .308 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .384 vs Away .406 (OPS .701/.714) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.27 vs Away 4.37 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.35 vs Away 1.36 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Andre Pallante (ERA 3.45) vs Away Blade Tidwell (ERA 4.82) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .285 · K 1189 · BB 482 / Away BABIP .290 · K 1217 · BB 420 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.29 · HR9 1.00 / Away K/BB 2.01 · HR9 0.97 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Giants' Sweep Momentum
The San Francisco Giants just completed their first three-game sweep of 2026, fueled by a massive six-run eighth inning comeback win in their last outing.
Basis: LLM · news · Giants erupt for 6 runs in 8th for comeback win, 1
Qualitative · Cardinals' Losing Streak Pressure
The St. Louis Cardinals are currently on a four-game losing streak against the San Francisco Giants, with their offense struggling to produce runs.
Basis: LLM · news · SF Giants drop fourth straight game as offense goe
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Giants erupt for 6 runs in 8th for comeback win, 1st 3-game sweep of '26
- How to watch San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals
- How to watch Giants vs. Cardinals: TV channel and streaming options for September 14
- Series Preview: St. Louis Cardinals Hosting San Francisco Giants
- Giants vs. Cardinals (Sep 15, 2026) Pregame
- SF Giants drop fourth straight game as offense goes quiet vs. Cardinals
- San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/14/2026
- St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants Game Discussion Monday
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives St. Louis Cardinals a 65% chance to win (Home 65% · Away 35%). MLB · 2026-09-16 08:45 KST.
How was the 64.6% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 64.6%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.