Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets
BOAwayBaltimore Orioles48%
@NYMHomeNew York Mets52%
Model PickNew York Mets 52%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We project a New York Mets victory with a 52% probability, though the edge against the market is uncalculated. The primary drivers supporting the Mets are 'Home Advantage' and 'Last 10 Games Form', both contributing a +2.5% deltaPct. However, a significant swing risk lies in the 'Starting Pitcher Matchup', which heavily favors the Orioles with a -2.8% deltaPct.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 52% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-0.1
Season Win%-0.4
Last 10 Games Form+2.5
Home/Away Split-0.4
Team OBP-1.2
Team SLG+0.1
Team ERA+0.2
Team WHIP+1.2
Starting Pitcher Matchup-2.8
Baseline 50% → final home win51.7%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York Mets at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 47.6% (644 RS/679 RA) vs Away 47.7% (674/708) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 69-81 (.460) vs Away 73-78 (.483) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 6-4 vs Away 4-6 · Home L2 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 34-41 · away team away 37-39 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .308 vs Away .316 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .395 vs Away .393 (OPS .703/.709) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.16 vs Away 4.18 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.30 vs Away 1.35 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Sean Manaea (ERA 4.79) vs Away Shane Baz (ERA 4.05) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .279 · K 1266 · BB 484 / Away BABIP .288 · K 1411 · BB 557 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.60 · HR9 1.14 / Away K/BB 2.42 · HR9 1.10 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Alonso's Queens Return
Pete Alonso's return to Citi Field as an Oriole could create a charged atmosphere and emotional dynamic for both teams, potentially impacting player focus and motivation.
Basis: LLM · news · Alonso hitless in return to Queens; Pete Alonso re
Qualitative · Series Opener Win
The Orioles secured a 2-1 victory in the series opener against the Mets yesterday, giving them momentum while potentially fueling the Mets' desire for revenge.
Basis: LLM · news · Orioles win 2-1; Mets host the Orioles to open 3-g
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
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Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Mets a 52% chance to win (Home 52% · Away 48%). MLB · 2026-09-16 08:10 KST.
How was the 51.7% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 51.7%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.