San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals
SFGAwaySan Francisco Giants42%
@SLCHomeSt. Louis Cardinals58%
Model PickSt. Louis Cardinals 58%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
The St. Louis Cardinals are projected to have a 58% win probability against the San Francisco Giants. Key factors favoring the Cardinals include Home Advantage, Pythagorean Expectation, and Home/Away Split. However, the Giants' superior Team SLG presents a potential risk for the Cardinals. The market edge for this pick is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 58% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+1.9
Season Win%+1.4
Home/Away Split+1.6
Team OBP+1.3
Team SLG-1.6
Team ERA+0.8
Team WHIP+0.2
Starting Pitcher Matchup-0.4
Baseline 50% → final home win57.7%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | St. Louis Cardinals at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 49.5% (683 RS/690 RA) vs Away 44.8% (632/709) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 74-76 (.493) vs Away 62-88 (.413) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 4-6 vs Away 4-6 · Home W1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 36-39 · away team away 26-49 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .317 vs Away .308 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .385 vs Away .407 (OPS .702/.715) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.29 vs Away 4.38 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.35 vs Away 1.36 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Quinn Mathews (ERA 4.11) vs Away Landen Roupp (ERA 4.00) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .285 · K 1183 · BB 478 / Away BABIP .290 · K 1205 · BB 416 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.29 · HR9 1.00 / Away K/BB 2.01 · HR9 0.97 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Giants' Sweep Momentum
The Giants are coming off a three-game sweep against the Cardinals, including a dramatic comeback win where they scored six runs in the 8th inning.
Basis: LLM · news · Giants complete epic eighth inning rally to sweep
Qualitative · Cardinals' Bat Slump
The Cardinals' bats have been quiet in recent games against the Giants, struggling to produce runs, which could negatively impact team morale.
Basis: LLM · news · St. Louis Cardinals Bats Go Quiet as San Francisco
Qualitative · Immediate Rematch
These two teams are meeting again immediately after a sweep, presenting the Cardinals with a chance for revenge and the Giants an opportunity to extend their momentum.
Basis: LLM · news · Giants visit the Cardinals to start 3-game series
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/09/2026
- How to watch Cardinals vs. Giants: TV channel and streaming options for September 9
- St. Louis Cardinals Bats Go Quiet as San Francisco Giants Win Tuesday
- Giants visit the Cardinals to start 3-game series
- San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 14, 2026)
- Giants 2-1 Cardinals (Sep 8, 2026) Game Recap
- SF Giants complete epic eighth inning rally to sweep Cardinals
- Whitcomb's double caps Giants' 6-run rally in a 7-6 victory over the Cardinals
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives St. Louis Cardinals a 58% chance to win (Home 58% · Away 42%). MLB · 2026-09-15 08:45 KST.
How was the 57.7% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 57.7%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.