San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
SDPAwaySan Diego Padres82%
@CRHomeColorado Rockies18%
Model PickSan Diego Padres 82%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects an 82% win probability for the San Diego Padres, indicating a significant advantage over the Colorado Rockies. This forecast is primarily driven by the Padres' superior 'Team ERA' (-12.8%p) and 'Last 10 Games Form' (-7.3%p). However, the 'Home Advantage' (2.5%p) for the Rockies presents a potential swing risk. The market edge for this pick is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 18% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-4.6
Season Win%-3
Last 10 Games Form-7.3
Home/Away Split-0.6
Team OBP+0.8
Team SLG+1.8
Team ERA-12.8
Team WHIP-4.6
Starting Pitcher Matchup-3.9
Baseline 50% → final home win18.4%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Colorado Rockies at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 40.2% (696 RS/865 RA) vs Away 51.6% (639/617) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 55-94 (.369) vs Away 81-68 (.544) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 2-8 vs Away 8-2 · Home L7 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 30-41 · away team away 35-39 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .322 vs Away .316 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .415 vs Away .390 (OPS .737/.706) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 5.57 vs Away 3.91 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.53 vs Away 1.28 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Tomoyuki Sugano (ERA 5.30) vs Away Casey Mize (ERA 3.70) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .306 · K 1307 · BB 470 / Away BABIP .282 · K 1200 · BB 516 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.03 · HR9 1.40 / Away K/BB 2.42 · HR9 1.13 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Rockies' 7-Game Skid
The Colorado Rockies are currently on a 7-game losing streak, most recently falling 8-1 to the Detroit Tigers. This prolonged slump could significantly impact team morale and confidence.
Basis: LLM · news · Colorado Rockies' slide to 7 games
Qualitative · Padres' Hot Hitter
Padres' player Merrill is in excellent form, having recently hit two home runs and driven in six runs in a single game. His hot bat could provide a significant boost to the Padres' offense.
Basis: LLM · news · Merrill homers twice and drives in 6 runs in the P
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 14, 2026)
- San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies Preview - 09/14/2026
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies - Boxscore - Live Score - September 14, 2026
- Colorado Rockies After Dark: Who are you rooting for in the MLB postseason?
- New York Yankees vs. Colorado Rockies: Max Fried vs. Ryan Feltner
- Padres vs Rockies match player stats | 2026 Monday, September 14th
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres Series Sept. 14-17: Odds, Starting Pitchers & Predictions
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives San Diego Padres a 82% chance to win (Home 18% · Away 82%). MLB · 2026-09-15 09:40 KST.
How was the 18.4% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 18.4%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.