San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants
SDPAwaySan Diego Padres63%
@SFGHomeSan Francisco Giants37%
Model PickSan Diego Padres 63%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects a San Diego Padres victory with a 63% probability, though the edge against the market is uncalculated. The primary driver supporting this pick is the advantage in Team SLG / Team SLG, which helps offset several negative factors. However, the significant deficit in Team ERA / Team ERA and the opponent's Home Advantage / Home Advantage serve as the main swing risks for this matchup.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 37% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-2.6
Season Win%-2.2
Last 10 Games Form-2.5
Home/Away Split+0.3
Team OBP-1.2
Team SLG+1.3
Team ERA-4
Team WHIP-2.2
Starting Pitcher Matchup-2.4
Baseline 50% → final home win37.1%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | San Francisco Giants at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 44.9% (628 RS/703 RA) vs Away 51.5% (633/613) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 62-87 (.416) vs Away 80-68 (.541) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 5-5 vs Away 7-3 · Home L2 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 36-38 · away team away 34-39 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .308 vs Away .316 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .408 vs Away .390 (OPS .716/.706) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.37 vs Away 3.91 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.37 vs Away 1.28 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Logan Webb (ERA 4.10) vs Away Nick Pivetta (ERA 3.43) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .290 · K 1196 · BB 412 / Away BABIP .281 · K 1190 · BB 515 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 1.99 · HR9 0.97 / Away K/BB 2.42 · HR9 1.13 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/12/2026
- How to watch the San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants: TV, live stream info for Sunday Night Baseball
- Padres 7-5 Giants (Sep 11, 2026) Game Recap
- How to watch San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
- San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Live Stream: How to Watch MLB
- How to watch Padres vs. Giants: TV channel and streaming options for September 11
- San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/11/2026
- San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives San Diego Padres a 63% chance to win (Home 37% · Away 63%). MLB · 2026-09-14 08:20 KST.
How was the 37.1% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 37.1%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.