Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
PPAwayPhiladelphia Phillies27%
@ABHomeAtlanta Braves73%
Model PickAtlanta Braves 73%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We project an Atlanta Braves victory with a 73% probability, though the edge against the market is uncalculated. The primary drivers for this pick are the significant advantages in 'Starting Pitcher Matchup' and 'Last 10 Games Form'. However, a slight deficit in 'Team OBP' remains the key swing risk, and we transparently note that our model does not beat the market over the long term.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 73% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+2.8
Season Win%+0.7
Last 10 Games Form+3.7
Home/Away Split+1.3
Team OBP-0.1
Team SLG+0.8
Team ERA+3.6
Team WHIP+0.9
Starting Pitcher Matchup+7.1
Baseline 50% → final home win73.1%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Atlanta Braves at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 58.7% (689 RS/568 RA) vs Away 51.8% (666/640) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 88-61 (.591) vs Away 82-67 (.550) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 6-4 vs Away 3-7 · Home W3 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 51-26 · away team away 41-33 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .310 vs Away .311 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .410 vs Away .399 (OPS .720/.710) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.56 vs Away 4.00 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.24 vs Away 1.28 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Grant Holmes (ERA 3.46) vs Away Andrew Painter (ERA 5.71) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .286 · K 1202 · BB 427 / Away BABIP .283 · K 1233 · BB 468 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.53 · HR9 1.12 / Away K/BB 3.25 · HR9 1.20 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Braves Walk-Off Win
The Braves secured a walk-off victory against the Phillies in the 11th inning, extending their lead to five games. This dramatic win could significantly boost team morale.
Basis: LLM · news · Braves Walk Off Phillies in 11th, Take Five-Game L
Qualitative · Phillies' Extra-Inning Loss
The Phillies suffered a walk-off loss to the Braves in the 11th inning. This tough defeat might negatively impact team morale or add pressure for the upcoming game.
Basis: LLM · news · Braves Walk Off Phillies in 11th, Take Five-Game L
Qualitative · Divisional Lead Battle
With the Braves holding a five-game lead over the Phillies, this game is crucial for the divisional race. Both teams will be highly motivated.
Basis: LLM · news · Take Five-Game Lead
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/11/2026
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves: Game Highlights
- How to watch Phillies vs. Braves: TV channel and streaming options for September 11
- What channel are the Phillies on tonight? What channel are the Braves on?
- What channel is Phillies-Braves on Saturday? How to watch, stream
- Braves Walk Off Phillies in 11th, Take Five-Game Lead
- Watch Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
- Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/12/2026
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Atlanta Braves a 73% chance to win (Home 73% · Away 27%). MLB · 2026-09-14 02:35 KST.
How was the 73.1% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 73.1%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.