New York Mets @ New York Yankees
NYMAwayNew York Mets23%
@NYYHomeNew York Yankees77%
Model PickNew York Yankees 77%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We recommend the New York Yankees with a 77% win probability, though the edge against the market is uncalculated. The primary drivers for this pick are the significant advantages in '팀 평균자책(ERA)' and the '선발 매치업 / Starting Pitcher Matchup'. However, a narrow margin in '팀 출루율(OBP)' remains a key swing risk, and investors should note that our model does not beat the market over the long term.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts New York Mets vs New York Yankees by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 77% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+4.5
Season Win%+1.8
Home/Away Split+1.1
Team OBP+0.4
Team SLG+0.9
Team ERA+7.4
Team WHIP+2.9
Starting Pitcher Matchup+5.2
Baseline 50% → final home win76.7%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York Yankees at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 59.1% (675 RS/552 RA) vs Away 47.8% (643/675) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 85-63 (.574) vs Away 69-79 (.466) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 7-3 vs Away 7-3 · Home L1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 41-32 · away team away 35-39 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .312 vs Away .309 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .409 vs Away .397 (OPS .721/.706) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.26 vs Away 4.19 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.17 vs Away 1.31 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Cam Schlittler (ERA 2.01) vs Away Christian Scott (ERA 3.81) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .281 · K 1353 · BB 529 / Away BABIP .280 · K 1248 · BB 477 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.98 · HR9 1.05 / Away K/BB 2.58 · HR9 1.13 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Subway Series Rivalry
The Mets struggled early and lost to the Yankees in the Subway Series opener. Given the nature of this fierce rivalry, they'll be highly motivated to bounce back and seek revenge in the next game.
Basis: LLM · news · Subway Series opener, fall to Yankees
Qualitative · Mets Rookie Pitcher Promoted
The Mets quickly promoted a 23-year-old pitcher right before the Yankees series. This indicates a strategic shift in their pitching rotation, and the performance of this rookie could significantly impact the game.
Basis: LLM · news · Mets Quickly Promote 23-Year-Old Pitcher Before Ya
Qualitative · 9/11 Commemoration Game
This game commemorates the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, holding significant meaning for both teams and their fans. Such an emotionally charged atmosphere could unexpectedly influence player performance.
Basis: LLM · news · 25th anniversary of 9/11 attacks, commemorate 25th
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- New York Mets at New York Yankees Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/12/2026
- Yankees 6-4 Mets (Sep 11, 2026) Game Recap
- How to watch Mets vs. Yankees: TV channel and streaming options for September 11
- New York Mets vs New York Yankees Live Stream: How to Watch MLB
- New York Mets at New York Yankees Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/11/2026
- Former New York Mets and New York Yankees reflect on September 11 attacks 25 years later
- What channel is Yankees vs. Mets on today? Time, TV schedule, live stream to watch 9/11 anniversary game
- New York Mets vs. New York Yankees: Game Highlights
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
New York Mets vs New York Yankees — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Yankees a 77% chance to win (Home 77% · Away 23%). MLB · 2026-09-14 02:35 KST.
How was the 76.7% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 76.7%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.